News You Can Use of 19 April 2024

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NEWS U CAN USE

April 19, 2024

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The Week that was…

Apr to 19

Apr

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Indian Economy

• India’s merchandise trade deficit narrowed to $15.60 billion in Mar 2024 from $18.96

billion in Mar 2023. Exports edged down 0.67% to $41.68 billion in Mar 2024 from $41.96

billion of the same month of previous year and imports also decreased by 5.98% to $57.28

billion from $60.92 billion during the same period.

• India’s wholesale price index (WPI) based inflation accelerated by 0.53% YoY in Mar 2024

as compared to 0.20% in Feb 2024. The positive rate of inflation in Mar 2024 is primarily

due to an increase in prices of food articles, electricity, crude petroleum & natural gas,

machinery & equipment and other manufacturing products.

• According to the latest Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) minutes, members of the RBI's

MPC maintained their caution regarding factors such as food inflation and external

contingencies, although they expressed confidence in the current policy stance. They

expressed concern about persistently high inflation figures despite recent declines and

stressed the need to keep downward pressure on inflation until more distinct risks

become apparent.

• According to the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell data, India's imports of crude oil

decreased by 16% in FY24 due to lower global rates, however, import dependency

increased to a record high of 87.7%. India imported crude oil worth USD 132.4 billion,

despite its stable domestic production of 29.4 million tonnes. Fuel consumption surged to

a record 233.3 million tonnes.

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Domestic Equity Market Indices

Indices

15-Apr-24 1 Week Return YTD Return

S&P BSE Sensex

73,088.33 -1.56% 1.17%

Nifty 50

22,147.00 -1.65% 1.91%

S&P BSE Mid

-Cap 40,004.52 -2.21% 8.59%

S&P BSE Small

-Cap 45,433.79 -0.96% 6.47%

Source: Refinitiv

Values as on Apr 19, 2024

• Domestic equity markets fell during the

week as key benchmark indices S&P

BSE Sensex and Nifty 50 fell 1.56% and

1.65%, respectively. The fall was broad-

based as the mid-cap segment and the

small-cap segment both closed the

week in red.

• Domestic equity markets fell during the

week under review as sentiments were

dampened after the recent flare-up

between Iran and Israel which

increased anxiety among the investors

over the possibility that this would

disrupt the world's supply of

commodities, particularly crude oil and

some industrial metals. However, losses

were restricted as the rising tussle

between Iran and Israel took a breather

after Irani officials stated they had no

plans to immediately retaliate against

Israel.

Ratios

S&P BSE

Sensex

Nifty 50

S&P BSE

Mid Cap

S&P BSE

Small Cap

P/E

24.98 22.68 28.08 32.71

P/B

3.72 3.88 3.67 3.54

Dividend Yield

1.12 1.20 0.91 0.64

Source: NSE, BSE

Values as on Apr 19, 2024

Indian Equity Market

NSE Advance/Decline Ratio

Date

Advances Declines Advance/Decline Ratio

15-Apr-24 475 2,138 0.22

16-Apr-24 1,551 1,002 1.55

18-Apr-24 1,168 1,400 0.83

19-Apr-24 1,162 1,396 0.83

Source: NSE

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Sectoral Indices

Indices

Last Returns (in %)

Closing 1-Wk 1-Mth

S&P BSE Auto

49,083.46 -1.30% 5.27%

S&P BSE Bankex

53,720.76 -2.12% 2.05%

S&P BSE CD

52,383.63 -1.22% 4.92%

S&P BSE CG

61,035.39 -1.95% 8.31%

S&P BSE FMCG

19,108.96 -1.16% 1.13%

S&P BSE HC

34,422.67 -2.38% 2.15%

S&P BSE IT

34,139.78 -4.59% -6.10%

S&P BSE Metal

30,243.85 -0.34% 11.44%

S&P BSE Oil & Gas

28,233.03 -0.04% 6.77%

Source:BSE

Values as on Apr 19, 2024

• On the BSE sectoral front, S&P BSE IT plunged

4.59% amid growing concerns that the U.S. Fed

may not start cutting rates this year which could

impact economic recovery and push clients to

curtail their discretionary spending on IT

services.

• S&P BSE Realty fell 2.79% after data showed

that private equity funding in the real estate

sector fell 16% in FY24 to USD 3.67 billion on

lower interest from foreign investors.

Indian Derivatives Market Review

• Nifty Apr 2024 Futures stood at 22,128.70, a discount of 18.30 points below the spot

closing of 22,147.00.

• The total turnover on NSE’s Futures and Options segment for the week stood at Rs.

1464.04 lakh crore as against Rs. 1384.79 lakh crore for the week to Apr 12.

• The Put-Call ratio stood at 0.78 compared with the previous week’s close of 0.97.

• The Nifty Put-Call ratio stood at 1.03 compared with the previous week’s close of 0.87.

Indian Equity Market (contd.)

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7.10

7.15

7.20

7.25

15-Apr 16-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr

Yield in %

10 -Yr Benchmark Bond ( % )

Source: CCIL

Debt Indicators

(%)

Current

Value

1-Wk

Ago

1-Mth

Ago

6-Mth

Ago

Call Rate

6.53 6.56 6.51 6.70

91 Day T-Bill

6.88 6.86 6.87 6.93

05.74% 2026, (5 Yr GOI)

7.02 7.07 7.06 7.38

07.18% 2033, (10 Yr GOI)

7.23 7.17 7.10 7.37

Source: Refinitiv Values as on Apr 19, 2024

• Bond yields rose on worries over the

heightened conflict in the Middle East.

Losses were extended following strong

U.S. labour market data that might delay

interest rate cuts by the U.S. central bank

to avoid a reacceleration of inflation.

However, an ease in crude oil prices

restricted the losses.

• Yield on the 10-year benchmark paper

(7.18% GS 2033) rose by 5 bps to close at

7.23% from the previous week’s close of

7.18%.

• Data from Reserve Bank of India showed

that India's foreign exchange reserves

decreased to $643.16 billion for the

week ended Apr 12, 2024 compared with

$648.56 billion a week earlier.

Domestic Debt Market

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6.60

6.80

7.00

7.20

7.40

3 Mths 6 Mths 1 Yr 5 Yrs 10 Yrs 20 Yrs 30 Yrs

India Yield Curve Shift (%) (W-o-W)

Change in bps 19-Apr-24 12-Apr-24

Yield in %

Change in bps

Source: Refinitiv

Maturity

G-Sec Yield

(%)

Corporate Yield

(%)

Spread

bps

1 Year 7.15 7.96 81

3 Year 7.34 7.89 55

5 Year 7.38 7.82 44

10 Year 7.36 7.71 35

Source: Refinitiv

Values as on Apr 19, 2024

• Yields on gilt rose between 2 to 15 bps across the

maturities.

• Corporate bond yields increased between 3 to 14

bps across the curve.

• Difference in spread between AAA corporate bond

and gilt contracted up to 12 bps across the

segments, barring 2, 3 & 15 year papers that

expanded by 4 or 6 bps, while 10 year paper

remained steady.

Domestic Debt Market (Spread Analysis)

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• The RBI issued a significant directive which stated that no entity involved in card

transactions will be permitted to store data except the card issuer and card networks w.e.f.

Aug 1, 2025. The purpose of this directive is to improve the security and privacy of

cardholder data while conducting transactions.

• The government has notified amendments to the foreign direct investment policy in the

space sector to attract offshore investors in satellite manufacturing and satellite launch

vehicles segments. The amendment prescribes liberalized entry route and provides clarity

for FDI in satellites, launch vehicles and associated systems or subsystems, creation of

spaceports for launching and receiving Spacecraft and manufacturing of space-related

components and systems.

• SEBI has proposed a new framework for price discovery of listed investment holding

companies to address the gap between their traded price and book value. Investment

holding companies are firms that only hold investments in different asset classes including

shares of other listed companies, mostly belonging to group firms.

• According to reports, the finance ministry has argued for a more stringent KYC process and

thorough due diligence by banks and financial institutions when onboarding merchants in an

effort to reduce the frequency of financial frauds and protect consumers from cyber

threats.

Regulatory Updates in India

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• According to reports, the government has rejected the option of sugar export for the

current season despite industry demand. The Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) claimed

that their closing stock is healthy and they wanted to export 10 lakh tonness. The ISMA has

updated its estimate of sugar production to 32 million tonnes after it surpassed 30 million

tonnes. The government might permit the production of ethanol from surplus B-heavy

molasses.

• A significant step forward, IRDAI eliminated the need for insurers to offer health plans

with a maximum age limit. So far, individuals could buy a fresh insurance policy till 65-years

of age. According to the new rule, any one regardless of their age can buy a new health

policy. The insurance regulator has also instructed insurers to establish a separate channel

to address the health insurance related claims and grievances of senior citizens.

Regulatory Updates in India (contd..)

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• According to the Labor Department, U.S. initial jobless claims came in at 212,000 in the

week ended Apr 13th, 2024, unchanged from the previous week's revised level.

Economists had expected jobless claims to rise to 215,000 from the 211,000 originally

reported for the previous week.

• According to the Commerce Department, U.S. retail sales climbed by 0.7% in Mar 2024

after advancing by an upwardly revised 0.9% in Feb 2024. Economists had expected retail

sales to rise by 0.3% compared to the 0.6% increase originally reported for the previous

month.

• According to the Office for National Statistics, U.K. consumer price inflation weakened to

3.2% in Mar 2024 from 3.4% in Feb 2024. The Mar 2024 inflation was the lowest since Sep

2021, when it was 3.1%.

• According to Destatis, Germany’s producer prices registered an annual decrease of 2.9%

after in Mar declining 4.1% in Jan 2024. Prices have been falling since Jul 2023.

• According to Eurostat, eurozone’s harmonized index of consumer prices registered an

increase of 2.4% in Mar 2024 annually, slower than the 2.6% rise in Feb 2024.

• According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s gross domestic product grew 5.3%

on a yearly basis in the first quarter of 2024. The growth rate exceeded both expectations

of 5.0% and the previous quarter's 5.2% growth.

• According to the Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry, Japan’s tertiary activity index

rose 1.5% MoM in Feb 2024, reversing a 0.5% decrease in Jan 2024.

Global News/Economy

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Global Indices

Indices

12-Apr-24

1-Week

Return

YTD

Return

Russell 3000 2,498.60 -4.89% 3.99%

Nasdaq 100 17,037.65 -5.36% 1.26%

FTSE 100 7,895.85 -1.25% 2.10%

DAX Index 17,737.36 -1.08% 5.88%

Nikkei Average 37,068.35 -6.21% 10.77%

Straits Times 3,176.51 -1.26% -1.97%

Source: Refinitiv Value as on Apr 19, 2024

U.S.

• U.S. equity markets fell as intensified

geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle

East between Iran and Israel weighed

on the market's sentiments. Further,

the market fell after the U.S. Federal

Reserve’s Chair stated that if inflation

stays sticky, the U.S. central bank might

need to maintain higher interest rates

for an extended period of time.

Europe

• European markets mostly fell due to the escalating tensions in the Middle East and the

continuous uncertainty around the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory.

However, losses were limited after the comments from the European Central Bank official

raised expectations about lowering the interest rate in Jun’s 2024 policy review meeting.

Asia

• Asian equity markets mostly fell as tensions in the Middle East grew, with worries about

inflation. The Japanese market fell as investors got worried by elevated global tensions

and escalating doubts about the trajectory of U.S. interest rates.

Global Equity Markets

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4.55

4.60

4.65

4.70

15-Apr 16-Apr 17-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr

Yield in %

US 10-Year Treasury Yield Movement

Source: Refinitiv

• Yields on the 10-year U.S. Treasury rose

by 12 bps to close at 4.62% from the

previous week’s close of 4.52%.

• U.S. Treasury prices fell after the

Commerce Department reported that

U.S. retail sales climbed by 0.7% in Mar

2024 after advancing by an upwardly

revised 0.9% in Feb 2024, which was

stronger than expected and that

suggested the U.S. Federal Reserve

could delay cutting interest rates this

year.

• Prices continued to decline after the

U.S. Federal Reserve Chair stated that

higher interest rates may need to be

maintained for a lengthy period of time

if inflation remains sticky.

• However, losses were restricted as

investors moved toward safe haven

assets in the wake of a presumed Israeli

attack on Iran.

Global Debt (U.S.)

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8.00

9.00

10.00

11.00

12.00

19-Mar-24 4-Apr-24

Global Commodity Movement

Gold Spot ($/Oz) Silver Spot ($/Oz) Brent ($/bbl)

Global Commodity Prices

Rebased to 10

Source: Refinitiv

Performance of various commodities

Commodities

Last Closing* 1-Week Ago

Brent Crude($/Barrel)

89.06 94.11

Gold ($/Oz)

2,390.45 2,343.43

Gold (Rs/10 gm)

73,262 72,931

Silver ($/Oz)

28.65 27.88

Silver (Rs/Kg)

82,807 83,961

Source: Refinitiv *Value as on Apr 19, 2024

Gold

• Gold prices rose as investors closely

monitored developments associated with

the conflict in the Middle East which

caused safe-haven purchases of assets like

bullion. However, gains were restricted due

to uncertainty about the rate cut in Jun’s

2024 monetary policy review.

Brent Crude

• Brent crude oil prices fell on worries about

weakening global oil demand that

overshadowed the recent reinstatement of

U.S. sanctions against the oil industry of

Venezuela.

Baltic Dry Index

• The index rose over the week due to

improved capesize and panamax activities.

Commodities Market

19-Apr-24

-5.37%

2.01%

2.79%

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9.60

9.70

9.80

9.90

10.00

10.10

10.20

19-Mar-24 4-Apr-24

USD GBP Euro JPY

Source: Refinitiv

Currency Prices ( in terms of INR)

Rebased to 10

Currency Movement

Movement of Rupee vs Other Currencies

Currency

Last Closing* 1-Wk Ago

US Dollar

83.52 83.39

Pound Sterling

103.80 104.42

EURO

88.89 89.13

100 Yen

54.09 54.42

Source: Refinitiv Figures in INR , *

Value as on Apr 19, 2024

Rupee

• The Indian rupee in the spot trade fell against

the U.S. dollar as growing Middle East

geopolitical tensions and concerns that the U.S.

Fed will postpone raising interest rates.

Euro

• Euro edged up against the greenback despite

following remarks made by the Federal Reserve

Chair that if inflation stays sticky, the U.S.

central bank could need to maintain higher

interest rates for longer.

Pound

• Pound declined against the U.S. dollar after the

Fed Chair stated that if inflation stays sticky, the

U.S. central bank might need to maintain higher

interest rates for an extended period of time.

• Yen fell against the U.S. dollar as investors bet

that the U.S. Fed would delay an interest rate

cut.

Currencies Markets

19-Apr-24

0.15%

-0.61%

-0.27%

-0.60%

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The Week that was…

Apr to 19

Apr

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The Week that was (Apr 15 – Apr 19)

Date Events

Present

Value

Monday,

April 15, 2024

• India WPI Food Index (YoY) (Mar) 4.65% 4.09%

• U.S. Retail Sales (MoM)(Mar) 0.70% 0.90%

Tuesday,

April 16, 2024

• China Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)(Q1) 1.60% 1.20%

• China Retail Sales (YoY)(Mar) 3.10% 5.50%

• U.K. Claimant Count Change(Mar) 10.9K 4.1K

• U.S. Industrial Production (MoM)(Mar) 0.40% 0.40%

Wednesday,

April 17, 2024

• U.K. Consumer Price Index (YoY)(Mar) 3.20% 3.40%

• U.K. Retail Price Index (YoY)(Mar) 4.30% 4.50%

• Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM)(Mar) 0.80% 0.80%

Thursday,

April 18, 2024

• Eurozone Construction Output (MoM)(Feb) 1.80% 0.20%

• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (Apr 12) 212K 212K

• U.S. Existing Home Sales Change (MoM)(Mar) -4.30% 9.50%

• Eurozone Current Account (Feb) €29.5B €39.3B

• Japan National Consumer Price Index (YoY)(Mar) 2.70% 2.80%

Friday,

April 19, 2024

• Germany Producer Price Index (MoM)(Mar) 0.20% -0.40%

• U.K. Retail Sales (MoM)(Mar) 0% 0.10%

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The Week Ahead

Apr to 26

Apr

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The Week Ahead

Day Event

Monday,

Apr 22, 2024

• People’s Bank of China Interest Rate Decision

• Germany German Buba Monthly Report

• Eurozone Consumer Confidence (Apr) PREL

Tuesday,

Apr 23, 2024

• India HSBC Manufacturing PMI Flash (Apr)

• Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI(Apr) PREL

• U.K. S&P Global/CIPS Services PMI(Apr) PREL

• U.S. New Home Sales Change (MoM)(Mar)

Wednesday,

Apr 24, 2024

• Germany IFO – Current Assessment (Apr)

• U.S. Durable Goods Orders (Mar)

Thursday,

Apr 25, 2024

• Germany GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (May)

• U.K. Gross Domestic Product Annualized(Q1) PREL

• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (Apr 19)

• U.K. GfK Consumer Confidence (Apr)

Friday,

Apr 26, 2024

• Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision

• U.S. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)(Mar)

• U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Apr)

• U.S. Personal Spending (Mar)

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markets which have been obtained from independent third party sources and which are deemed to be reliable. The information provided cannot be

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