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NEWS U CAN USE
February 16, 2024
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The Week that was…
12
th
Feb to 16
th
Feb
2
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Indian Economy
• The consumer price index-based inflation eased to 5.10% in Jan 2024 YoY compared to
5.69% in Dec 2023 due to cool off in food prices. The retail inflation remained below the
central bank’s upper tolerance level for consecutive five months. The consumer food price
inflation fell to 8.30% in Jan 2024 from 9.53% in Dec 2023.
• Industrial production growth in India (IIP) increased by 3.8% YoY in Dec 2023, as compared
to 2.4% rise in Nov 2023. Production in the manufacturing industry increased by 3.9%,
mining by 5.1% and electricity by 1.2% in Dec 2023.
• According to the official government data, India's net direct tax collection was Rs. 15.60
lakh crore as of Feb 10, 2024, reaching approximately 80% of the revised target set for the
entire financial year.
• India’s wholesale price index (WPI) based inflation eased to 0.27% in Jan 2024 YoY as
compared to 0.73% in Dec 2023. Positive rate of inflation in Jan 2024 is primarily due to
increase in prices of food articles, machinery & equipment, other manufacturing, minerals,
other transport equipment.
• India’s merchandise trade deficit widened to $17.49 billion in Jan 2024 from $17.03 billion
in Jan 2023. Exports increased by 3.1% to $36.92 billion in Jan 2024 from $35.80 billion of
the same month of previous year and imports also rose by 3% to $54.41 billion from
$52.83 billion during the same period.
3
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4
Domestic Equity Market Indices
Indices
16-Feb-24 1 Week Return YTD Return
S&P BSE Sensex
72,426.64 1.16% 0.26%
Nifty 50
22,040.70 1.19% 1.42%
S&P BSE Mid
-Cap 39,930.08 0.91% 8.39%
S&P BSE Small
-Cap 45,659.30 0.02% 7.00%
Source: Refinitiv
Values as on Feb 16, 2024
• Domestic equity markets rose during
the week after witnessing a fall in the
previous week as key benchmark
indices S&P BSE Sensex and Nifty 50
rose 1.16% and 1.19% respectively. The
rally in the market was broad-based as
the mid-cap segment and the small-cap
segment also closed the week in green.
• Domestic equity markets rose following
the ease in domestic retail inflation
data of Jan 2024, which remained
under the RBI’s upper tolerance level
for fifth consecutive time. Sentiments
were improved following the lower-
than-expected inflation data from U.K.
of Jan 2024. Gains were extended
following the weaker U.S. retail sales
data along with below than expected
industrial production data of Jan 2024
that raised the expectations of rate
cuts by the U.S. Fed in near future.
Ratios
S&P BSE
Sensex
Nifty 50
S&P BSE
Mid Cap
S&P BSE
Small Cap
P/E
24.77 22.76 27.73 32.12
P/B
3.67 3.86 3.64 3.51
Dividend Yield
1.13 1.22 0.91 0.65
Source: NSE, BSE
Values as on Feb 16, 2024
Indian Equity Market
NSE Advance/Decline Ratio
Date
Advances Declines Advance/Decline Ratio
12-Feb-24 472 2,110 0.22
13-Feb-24 1,182 1,332 0.89
14-Feb-24 1,591 895 1.78
15-Feb-24 1,605 908 1.77
16-Feb-24 1,508 1,007 1.50
Source: NSE
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5
Sectoral Indices
Indices
Last Returns (in %)
Closing 1-Wk 1-Mth
S&P BSE Auto
46,992.86 4.97% 10.25%
S&P BSE Bankex
52,628.29 1.73% -2.89%
S&P BSE CD
50,432.48 1.49% -2.72%
S&P BSE CG
55,999.37 0.99% -0.76%
S&P BSE FMCG
19,308.00 -0.73% -5.56%
S&P BSE HC
35,493.80 1.61% 8.99%
S&P BSE IT
39,040.82 1.52% 4.58%
S&P BSE Metal
27,621.23 -0.48% 3.80%
S&P BSE Oil & Gas
28,914.89 3.15% 16.37%
Source:BSE
Values as on Feb 16, 2024
• On the BSE sectoral front, S&P BSE AUTO rose
4.97% following the encouraging sales data
released by the Society of Indian Automobile
Manufacturers that showed Passenger Vehicles,
Three Wheelers and Two Wheelers posted
growth of 14%, 9% and 26% in Jan 2024
compared to Jan 2023, respectively.
• S&P BSE Oil & Gas rose 3.15% as analysts
expected healthy marketing margins of oil
marketing companies in FY25 due to possibility
of increase in prices by these companies after
the General Election 2024.
Indian Derivatives Market Review
• Nifty Feb 2024 Futures stood at 22,097.80, a premium of 57.10 points above the spot
closing of 22,040.70.
• The total turnover on NSE’s Futures and Options segment for the week stood at Rs.
2182.52 lakh crore as against Rs. 1957.65 lakh crore for the week to Feb 09.
• The Put-Call ratio stood at 0.82 compared with the previous week’s close of 0.93.
• The Nifty Put-Call ratio stood at 1.22 compared with the previous week’s close of 1.
Indian Equity Market (contd.)
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7.06
7.08
7.10
7.12
12-Feb 13-Feb 14-Feb 15-Feb 16-Feb
Yield in %
10 -Yr Benchmark Bond ( % )
Source: CCIL
6
Debt Indicators
(%)
Current
Value
1-Wk
Ago
1-Mth
Ago
6-Mth
Ago
Call Rate
6.70 6.73 6.76 6.64
91 Day T-Bill
7.05 7.03 6.97 6.77
05.74% 2026, (5 Yr GOI)
7.06 7.00 7.01 7.19
07.18% 2033, (10 Yr GOI)
7.10 7.11 7.15 7.18
Source: Refinitiv Values as on Feb 16, 2024
• Bond yields fell marginally ahead of the
release of domestic and U.S. retail
inflation data of Jan 2024. However,
gains were restricted following the surge
in U.S. Treasury yields after higher-than-
expected U.S. inflation data dampened
the expectation of early rate cut by the
U.S. Federal Reserve.
• Yield on the 10-year benchmark paper
(7.18% GS 2033) fell by 1 bps to close at
7.10% from the previous week’s close of
7.11%.
• Data from Reserve Bank of India showed
that India's foreign exchange reserves
fell to $617.23 billion for the week ended
Feb 09, 2024 compared with $622.47
billion a week earlier.
Domestic Debt Market
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-2
0
2
4
6
6.95
7.00
7.05
7.10
7.15
7.20
3 Mths 6 Mths 1 Yr 5 Yrs 10 Yrs 20 Yrs 30 Yrs
India Yield Curve Shift (%) (W-o-W)
Change in bps 16-Feb-24 09-Feb-24
Yield in %
Change in bps
Source: Refinitiv
7
Maturity
G-Sec Yield
(%)
Corporate Yield
(%)
Spread
bps
1 Year 7.22 7.94 72
3 Year 7.20 7.73 53
5 Year 7.20 7.65 45
10 Year 7.22 7.53 31
Source: Refinitiv
Values as on Feb 16, 2024
• Yields on gilt were unchanged or moved by 1 bps
across the maturities, barring 1, 11 to 13 & 19 year
papers that rose between 2 to 6 bps and 10 year
paper that fell by 2 bps.
• Corporate bond yields fell up to 2 bps across the
curve, barring 7 to 10 & 15 year papers that
increased up to 13 bps.
• Difference in spread between AAA corporate bond
and gilt contracted up to 7 bps across the segments,
barring 7, 10 & 15 year papers that expanded up to
13 bps, while 6 year paper remained steady.
Domestic Debt Market (Spread Analysis)
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8
• Prime Minister of India unveiled the 'Bharat Mart' during his visit to the UAE, a warehousing
facility designed to promote Indian exports overseas and cut down on shipping expenses
and times by showcasing them in a single location. This action supports comprehensive
partnerships and the expansion of trade to several regions, which is in line with the
strengthening economic ties between India and the UAE.
• India and the UAE signed seven agreements, including a Bilateral Investment Treaty,
Intergovernmental Framework Agreement on the India-Middle East-Europe Economic
Corridor and MoUs linking payment systems UPI (India) and AANI (UAE) that will facilitate
seamless cross-border transactions between the two countries.
• The RBI has ordered a card network, not specified by name, to stop using an unapproved
technique for business-to-business card payments. The RBI's rules pertaining to payment
and customer identification were broken when it was discovered that some commercial
payments were being processed through unaffiliated intermediaries.
• IRDAI released draft guidelines for the introduction of ‘Bima Sugam’, a digital platform
through which investors will be able to buy, renew, port, and request claims all online.
Through the network of ‘Bima Vahaks’, insurance agents and intermediaries will be able to
use this platform to sell and renew insurance policies as well as submit requests for claims
entirely online.
Regulatory Updates in India
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9
• According to the government, the Credit Guarantee Fund Trust for Micro and Small
Enterprises has introduced a unique program for Informal Micro Enterprises that allows
the qualified business to borrow up to Rs. 20 lakh.
• The government has operationalized the central processing centre for processing filings
under the companies law and LLP Act in a "time-bound and faceless manner" in an
endeavour to enhance the ease of conducting business.
• According to the Secretary of the Department of Investment and Public Asset
Management, the Central Government is considering listing the subsidiaries of specific
public energy companies in capital market through initial public offerings.
Regulatory Updates in India (contd..)
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• According to the Commerce Department, U.S. retail sales slid by 0.8% in Jan 2024 after
climbing by a downwardly revised 0.4% in Dec 2023.
• According to the Federal Reserve, U.S. industrial production slipped by 0.1% in Jan 2024
compared to economist estimates for a 0.3% increase.
• According to the Labor Department, U.S. consumer price index rose by 0.3% in Jan 2024
after inching up by 0.2% in Dec 2023. Economists had expected consumer prices to edge
up by 0.2%.
• According to the Office for National Statistics, U.K. gross domestic product declined 0.3%
sequentially in Q4FY23, following an unrevised 0.1% fall in the third quarter. Economists
had forecast another 0.1% fall for the fourth quarter.
• According to the Office for National Statistics, U.K. consumer price index advanced 4.0%
on a yearly basis in Jan 2024, the same rate as seen in Dec 2023, while the rate was
forecast to rise to 4.1%.
• According to the Cabinet Office, Japan’s gross domestic product contracted by a
seasonally adjusted 0.1% on quarter in the fourth quarter of 2023. That missed
expectations for an increase of 0.2% following the downwardly revised 0.8% decline in the
third quarter (originally -0.7%).
• According to the Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry, Japan’s industrial production
climbed 1.4% on a monthly basis, in contrast to the 0.9% decrease a month ago. In the
initial estimate, the rebound was 1.8%.
10
Global News/Economy
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11
Global Indices
Indices
16-Feb-24
1-Week
Return
YTD
Return
Russell 3000 2,573.92 -1.15% 7.12%
Nasdaq 100 17,685.98 -1.54% 5.11%
FTSE 100 7,711.71 1.84% -0.28%
DAX Index 17,117.44 1.13% 2.18%
Nikkei Average 38,487.24 4.31% 15.01%
Straits Times 3,221.94 2.67% -0.57%
Source: Refinitiv Value as on Feb 16, 2024
U.S.
• U.S. equity markets mostly fell after the
release of the eagerly awaited Labor
Department report, which showed that
U.S. consumer prices increased more
than expected in Jan 2024, and the data
has further tempered hopes for an
impending rate reduction. Larger than
anticipated rise in U.S. producer prices
of Jan 2024 dampened the sentiment
about the future trajectory of interest
rates.
Europe
• European equity markets rose after the Office for National Statistics reported the U.K.
consumer price index advanced 4.0% on a yearly basis in Jan 2024, while the rate was
forecast to rise to 4.1%, and this data showed a somewhat muted U.K. inflation rate.
Further, the market rose as investors bet that the Bank of England and the Federal
Reserve would lower interest rates in the upcoming quarter.
Asia
• Asian equity markets rose after data from Oct to Dec 2023 showed that the Japanese
GDP declined for the second consecutive quarter, casting doubt on the Bank of Japan's
intentions to end its ultra-easy policies this year.
Global Equity Markets
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4.05
4.10
4.15
4.20
4.25
4.30
4.35
12-Feb 13-Feb 14-Feb 15-Feb 16-Feb
Yield in %
US 10-Year Treasury Yield Movement
Source: Refinitiv
12
• Yields on the 10-year U.S. Treasury rose
by 11 bps to close at 4.30% from the
previous week’s close of 4.19%.
• U.S. Treasury prices fell after the Labor
Department data showed that U.S.
consumer prices increased more than
expected by 0.3% in Jan 2024 after
gaining 0.2% in Dec 2023, and that
postponing off market projections
regarding the U.S. Federal Reserve's
rate cuts.
• Further, prices fell following the release
of economic data that revealed U.S.
producer prices rose more than
anticipated in Jan 2024. The market
became less optimistic about when the
U.S. Federal Reserve will drop interest
rates this year.
• However, losses were restricted after
data showed that U.S. retail sales
dropped in Jan 2024.
Global Debt (U.S.)
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9.00
9.50
10.00
10.50
11.00
16-Jan-24 1-Feb-24
Global Commodity Movement
Gold Spot ($/Oz) Silver Spot ($/Oz) Brent ($/bbl)
Global Commodity Prices
Rebased to 10
Source: Refinitiv
13
Performance of various commodities
Commodities
Last Closing* 1-Week Ago
Brent Crude($/Barrel)
87.47 86.17
Gold ($/Oz)
2,013.10 2,024.16
Gold (Rs/10 gm)
61,469 62,043
Silver ($/Oz)
23.40 22.60
Silver (Rs/Kg)
70,806 70,955
Source: Refinitiv *Value as on Feb 16, 2024
Gold
• Gold prices fell as expectations of an early
U.S. Federal Reserve rate drop were
dampened by strong U.S. inflation in Jan
2024. Further, prices fell after strong U.S.
producer prices increased anticipation that
the U.S. Federal Reserve will hold off on
reducing interest rates until the middle of
the year.
Brent Crude
• Brent crude oil price rose amid worries
about possible supply interruptions in light
of the escalating Middle East tensions.
However, gains were limited after industry
data revealed a significant increase in U.S.
crude stocks.
Baltic Dry Index
• The index rose over the week due to
improved capesize and panamax activities.
Commodities Market
16-Feb-24
1.51%
-0.55%
3.52%
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9.50
9.60
9.70
9.80
9.90
10.00
10.10
16-Jan-24 1-Feb-24
USD GBP Euro JPY
Source: Refinitiv
Currency Prices ( in terms of INR)
Rebased to 10
Currency Movement
14
Movement of Rupee vs Other Currencies
Currency
Last Closing* 1-Wk Ago
US Dollar
83.04 83.00
Pound Sterling
104.48 104.71
EURO
89.35 89.40
100 Yen
55.26 55.55
Source: Refinitiv Figures in INR , *
Value as on Feb 16, 2024
Rupee
• The Indian rupee in the spot trade rose against
the U.S. dollar, tracking positive cues from
domestic equity markets.
Euro
• Euro fell against the greenback after data
revealed that U.S. inflation increased more than
anticipated in Jan 2024, reinforcing
expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will
hold interest rates steady in Mar 2024.
Pound
• Pound declined against the U.S. dollar following
data showing that U.S. consumer prices rose
more than expected in Jan 2024, supporting
predictions that the U.S. Fed would maintain
current interest rates.
Y
en
• Yen fell marginally against the U.S. dollar amid
bets that the U.S. Fed will keep interest rates
higher for an extended period of time.
Currencies Markets
16-Feb-24
0.05%
-0.52%
-0.06%
-0.22%
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15
The Week that was…
12
th
Feb to 16
th
Feb
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16
The Week that was (Feb 12 – Feb 16)
Date Events
Present
Value
Previous
Value
Monday,
February 12, 2024
• India Inflation Rate YoY (Jan) 5.10% 5.69%
• India Industrial Production (YoY) (Dec) 3.80% 2.40%
• U.S. Monthly Budget Statement(Jan) $-22B $-129B
• Japan Producer Price Index (MoM)(Jan) 0% 0.30%
Tuesday,
February 13, 2024
• U.K. Claimant Count Change(Jan) 14.1K 5.5K
• U.K. Employment Change(Dec) 72K 73K
• U.S. Consumer Price Index (MoM)(Jan) 0.30% 0.20%
Wednesday,
February 14, 2024
• India WPI Food Index YoY (Jan) 3.79% 5.39%
• U.K. Core Consumer Price Index (YoY)(Jan) 5.10% 5.10%
• U.K. Retail Price Index (MoM)(Jan) -0.30% 0.50%
• Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)(Q4) PREL 0% 0%
• Japan Gross Domestic Product Annualized(Q4) PREL -0.40% -3.30%
Thursday,
February 15, 2024
• U.K. Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)(Q4) PREL -0.30% -0.10%
• U.S. Retail Sales (MoM)(Jan) -0.80% 0.40%
• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims(Feb 9) 212K 220K
• U.S. Industrial Production (MoM)(Jan) -0.10% 0.00%
Friday,
February 16, 2024
• U.K. Retail Sales (MoM)(Jan) 3.40% -3.30%
• U.S. Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)(Jan) 2% 1.70%
• U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index(Feb) PREL 79.6 79
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17
The Week Ahead
19
th
Feb to 23
rd
Feb
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18
The Week Ahead
Day Event
Monday,
Feb 19, 2024
• Germany Buba Monthly Report
• China FDI - Foreign Direct Investment (YTD) (YoY)(Jan)
Tuesday,
Feb 20, 2024
• People’s Bank of China Interest Rate Decision
• U.S. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock (Feb 16)
• Japan Exports (YoY)(Jan)
Wednesday,
Feb 21, 2024
• U.K. Public Sector Net Borrowing (Jan)
• Eurozone Consumer Confidence (Feb) PREL
• U.S. FOMC Minutes
Thursday,
Feb 22, 2024
• India HSBC Composite PMI Flash (Feb)
• India HSBC Manufacturing PMI Flash (Feb)
• Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI(Feb) PREL
• Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI(Feb) PREL
• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (Feb 16)
Friday,
Feb 23, 2024
• U.K. GfK Consumer Confidence (Feb)
• China House Price Index (Jan)
• Germany Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)(Q4)
• U.S. Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Report
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The information herein is meant only for general reading purposes and contains all factual and statistical information pertaining to Industry and
markets which have been obtained from independent third party sources and which are deemed to be reliable. The information provided cannot be
considered as guidelines, recommendations or as a professional guide for the readers. It may be noted that since Nippon Life India Asset
Management Limited (NAM India) has not independently verified the accuracy or authenticity of such information or data, or for that matter the
reasonableness of the assumptions upon which such data and information has been processed or arrive data; NAM India does not in any manner
assures the accuracy or authenticity of such data and information. Some of the statements & assertions contained in these materials may reflect NAM
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