News You Can Use of 03 January 2024

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NEWS U CAN USE

Jan 03, 2025

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The Week that was…

Dec to 03

Jan

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Indian Economy

• Government data showed that India’s fiscal deficit for the period from Apr to Nov of FY25

stood at Rs. 8.47 lakh crore or 52.5% of the Budget Estimates (BE) of the current fiscal.

India’s fiscal deficit was at 50.7% of the BE in the corresponding period of the previous

fiscal year. Total expenditure stood at Rs. 27.4 lakh crore or 56.9% of the BE as compared

to 58.9% of the BE in the corresponding period of the previous fiscal year.

• According to the Ministry of Commerce & Industry, the combined Index of Eight Core

Industries increased by 4.3% YoY in Nov 2024 as compared to 7.9% growth in Nov 2023.

The production of the Eight Core Industries remained mixed in Nov 2024 over the

corresponding month of last year, with cement witnessed the highest rate of growth with

13.0% followed by coal with 7.5% growth, while crude oil fell the most by 2.1% followed

by natural gas by 1.9%.

• The total gross goods and services tax (GST) revenue grew 7.3% YoY to Rs. 1.77 lakh crore

in Dec 2024 as compared to Rs. 1.65 lakh crore in Dec 2023.

• The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index fell marginally to 56.4 in Dec 2024

compared to 56.5 in Nov 2024. The data indicated softer demand in the sector despite

easing cost pressures and strong jobs growth.

• According to the Indian Sugar and Bio-Energy Manufacturers Association, sugar production

decreased by 16% to 95.40 lakh tonne in the first quarter of the current marketing year

starting in Oct 2024. Production declined mainly due to lower output in Maharashtra.

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Domestic Equity Market Indices

Indices

03-Jan-25 1 Week Return YTD Return

BSE Sensex

79,223.11 0.67% 1.39%

Nifty 50

24,004.75 0.80% 1.52%

BSE Mid

-Cap 46,936.08 1.32% 1.06%

BSE Small

-Cap 56,116.21 1.94% 1.70%

Source: Refinitiv

Values as on Jan 03, 2025

• Domestic equity markets rose for the

second consecutive week as key

benchmark indices BSE Sensex and

Nifty 50 rose 0.67% and 0.80%,

respectively. The rally was broad-based

as the mid-cap segment and the small-

cap segment both closed the week in

green.

• Domestic equity markets rose during

the week driven by purchases across

the sectors. An uptick in domestic core

sector data of Nov 2024 and the

prospect of an increase in intensity of

capex spending by the government in

the remaining part of the fiscal aided

sectors like capital goods, industrials,

auto, and power. However, gains were

limited after latest weekly jobless

claims data showed the U.S. labor

market remained resilient, reigniting

worries about high interest rates.

Ratios

BSE Sensex

Nifty 50 BSE Mid Cap

BSE Small

Cap

P/E

22.97 22.12 40.46 33.82

P/B

4.08 3.58 4.79 3.90

Dividend Yield

1.14 1.26 0.72 0.57

Source: NSE, BSE

Values as on Jan 03, 2025

Indian Equity Market

NSE Advance/Decline Ratio

Date

Advances Declines Advance/Decline Ratio

30-Dec-24 871 1,972 0.44

31-Dec-24 1,710 1,091 1.57

01-Jan-25 2,042 755 2.70

02-Jan-25 1,791 1,018 1.76

03-Jan-25 1,449 1,360 1.07

Source: NSE

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Sectoral Indices

Indices

Last Returns (in %)

Closing 1-Wk 1-Mth

BSE Auto

54,171.83 3.74% 0.85%

BSE Bankex

57,927.72 -0.50% -3.43%

BSE CD

66,283.95 3.38% 3.47%

BSE CG

68,211.21 0.07% -5.04%

BSE FMCG

21,118.27 2.36% -0.06%

BSE HC

45,336.07 1.56% 2.31%

BSE IT

43,679.26 0.16% 0.32%

BSE Metal

29,214.53 0.05% -6.47%

BSE Oil & Gas

26,818.40 3.69% -1.21%

Source:BSE

Values as on Jan 03, 2025

• On the BSE sectoral front, BSE Auto rose 3.74%

on the back of upbeat monthly auto sales data

of Dec 2024. Car sales in India rose for the third

consecutive month in Dec 2024, closing the year

at a record 4.3 million vehicles. Festive season

demand and new launches helped boost sales.

Despite challenges in the commercial vehicle

segment, companies remain optimistic about

the future.

• BSE Oil & Gas gained 3.69% led by upstream oil

companies, buoyed by a sharp rise in crude oil

prices, which reached their highest levels in

over two months.

Indian Derivatives Market Review

• Nifty Jan 2025 Futures stood at 24,092.40, a premium of 87.65 points above the spot

closing of 24,004.75.

• The total turnover on NSE’s Futures and Options segment for the week stood at Rs.

1,125.01 lakh crore as against Rs. 1,006.81 lakh crore for the week to Dec 27.

• The Put-Call ratio stood at 0.84 compared with the previous week’s close of 0.93.

• The Nifty Put-Call ratio stood at 0.86 compared with the previous week’s close of 1.03.

Indian Equity Market (contd.)

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6.74

6.76

6.78

6.80

30-Dec 31-Dec 1-Jan 2-Jan 3-Jan

Yield in %

10 -Yr Benchmark Bond ( % )

Source: CCIL

Debt Indicators

(%)

Current

Value

1-Wk

Ago

1-Mth

Ago

6-Mth

Ago

Call Rate

6.54 6.77 6.44 6.49

91 Day T-Bill

6.61 6.60 6.44 6.78

07.06% 2028, (5 Yr GOI)

6.72 6.75 6.63 6.99

06.79% 2034, (10 Yr GOI)

6.78 6.79 6.71 7.05

Source: Refinitiv Values as on Jan 03, 2025

• Bond yields fell, aided by value buying in

local bonds along with a downward tick

in U.S. Treasury yields. However, gains

were limited on concerns over heavy

borrowings by the central government in

the Jan-Mar quarter of FY25. The central

government is aiming to raise Rs. 2.79

lakh crore by the end of Mar 2025, while

states aim to borrow a record Rs. 4.73

lakh crore for the Jan-Mar quarter of

FY25.

• Yield on the 10-year benchmark paper

(6.79% GS 2034) fell by 1 bps to close at

6.78% from the previous week’s close of

6.79%.

• Data from Reserve Bank of India showed

that India's foreign exchange reserves

decreased to $640.28 billion for the

week ended Dec 27, 2024 compared with

$644.39 billion a week earlier.

Domestic Debt Market

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-12

-9

-6

-3

6.20

6.40

6.60

6.80

7.00

7.20

3 Mths 6 Mths 1 Yr 5 Yrs 10 Yrs 20 Yrs 30 Yrs

India Yield Curve Shift (%) (W-o-W)

Change in bps 03-Jan-25 27-Dec-24

Yield in %

Change in bps

Source: Refinitiv

Maturity

G-Sec Yield

(%)

Corporate Yield

(%)

Spread

bps

1 Year 6.76 7.6 84

3 Year 6.82 7.57 75

5 Year 6.83 7.46 63

10 Year 6.89 7.26 37

Source: Refinitiv

Values as on Jan 03, 2025

• Yields on gilt fell up to 10 bps across the maturities,

barring 19 year paper that rose by 1 bps, while 11

year paper was unchanged.

• Corporate bond yields fell between 2 to 10 bps

across the curve, barring 15 year paper that was

unchanged.

• Difference in spread between AAA corporate bond

and gilt contracted between 4 to 7 bps across the

segments, barring 1 & 15 year papers that expanded

by 2 & 1 bps, respectively, while 2 & 3 year papers

remained steady.

Domestic Debt Market (Spread Analysis)

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• The RBI in its Financial Stability Report highlighted that excessive use of crypto assets can

reduce effectiveness of monetary policy, worsen fiscal risks, circumvent capital flow

management measures, divert resources available for financing the real economy and

threaten global financial stability.

• The Indian government has extended two crop insurance schemes Pradhan Mantri Fasal

Bima Yojana and Restructured Weather Based Crop Insurance Scheme till 2025-26 and also

created a separate Rs. 824.77 crore fund for technology infusion in the implementation of

flagship schemes.

• India's Central Board of Indirect Taxes and Customs clarified that transactions involving

vouchers do not constitute supply of goods or services and are thus not liable to goods and

services tax (GST). GST will only apply to additional services such as marketing or

commission-based distribution. Unredeemed vouchers are also not taxable.

• The Employees' Provident Fund Organization has introduced the centralized pension

payment system, enabling pensioners to access their pension at any bank or branch across

the country. The system aims to streamline the payment process, eliminate the need for

physical verifications and ensure smooth pension disbursement for over 7.85 million

pensioners.

Regulatory Updates in India

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• SEBI has allowed asset management companies to launch passively managed hybrid index

funds or exchange traded funds (ETFs) under the new Mutual Funds (MF) Lite Regulations.

According to the regulation, MF lite fund houses can launch three categories of hybrid

passive funds Balanced (Equity 40%-60% and Debt 40%-60%), Equity Oriented (Equity

65%-80% and Debt 20%-35%) and Debt oriented (Debt 65%-80% and Equity 20%-35%).

Such fund houses can launch one index fund and one ETF under each category.

• India and Iran reviewed their relationship at the 19th India-Iran Foreign Office

Consultations held in Delhi, focusing on Chabahar port development, trade, and economic

cooperation. They discussed ways to resume Iranian crude oil procurement, regional

issues, and boosting tourism.

Regulatory Updates in India (contd..)

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• According to the Institute for Supply Management, U.S. manufacturing PMI inched up to

49.3 in Dec 2024 from 48.4 in Nov 2024, although a reading below 50 still indicates

contraction. Economists had expected the index to come in unchanged.

• According to the Labor Department, U.S. initial jobless claims slipped to 211,000 in the

week ended 28th Dec, 2024, a decrease of 9,000 from the previous week's revised level of

220,000. The dip surprised economists, who had expected jobless claims to inch up to

222,000 from the 219,000 originally reported for the previous week.

• According to Destatis, Germany’s unemployment rate came in at an adjusted 3.4% in Nov

2024, unchanged from Oct 2024. The number of unemployed decreased by 2,000 on

month to 1.52 million.

• According to a survey, China’s Caixin manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index posted

50.5 in Dec 2024, down from 51.5 in Nov 2024. The score was expected to climb to 51.6.

• According to a survey, Japan’s manufacturing PMI improves to 49.6 in Dec 2024. That's up

from 49.0 in Nov 2024, although it remains beneath the boom-or-bust line of 50 that

separates expansion from contraction.

• According to the Ministry of Trade and Industry, Singapore’s gross domestic product

expanded 4.3% on a yearly basis in the fourth quarter of 2024, which was slower than the

5.4% growth posted in the third quarter of 2024.

Global News/Economy

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Global Indices

Indices

03-Jan-25

1-Week

Return

YTD

Return

Russell 3000 3,208.50 -0.55% 1.49%

Nasdaq 100 21,326.16 -0.68% 1.49%

FTSE 100 8,223.98 0.91% 0.62%

DAX Index 19,906.08 -0.39% -0.02%

Nikkei Average

[1]

39,894.54 -0.96% 0.00%

Straits Times 3,801.83 0.80% 0.38%

Source: Refinitiv Value as on Jan 03, 202

[1] Value as on Dec 30, 2024

U.S.

• U.S. equity markets mostly fell on

concerns about the outlook for the

markets in the new year following recent

volatility. Stocks have experienced

significant fluctuations in recent weeks,

following the U.S. Federal Reserve's

projection of fewer interest rate

reductions in 2025 announced earlier Dec

2024.

Europe

• European equity markets closed on a mixed note. The market rose despite data showing a

sharp contraction in manufacturing activity in most of the major economies in the region in

the month of Dec 2024, amidst concerns on the geopolitical front. Furthermore, the

market rose as oil and gas stocks advanced.

Asia

• Asian equity markets mostly fell on concerns about trade tensions and regarding tariffs

have also impacted market sentiment. Further, prices fell after U.S. stocks experienced a

decline on 31st Dec, concluding 2024 on an atypical negative note following a year of

robust trading activity.

Global Equity Markets

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4.52

4.54

4.56

4.58

4.60

4.62

30-Dec 31-Dec 2-Jan 3-Jan

Yield in %

US 10-Year Treasury Yield Movement

Source: Refinitiv

• Yields on the 10-year U.S. Treasury fell

by 2 bps to close at 4.60% from the

previous week’s close of 4.62%.

• U.S. Treasury prices rose as investors

persisted in directing funds into the

bond market in the aftermath of losses

experienced on Wall Street.

• Meanwhile, investors awaited changes

under the U.S. President – elect

administration.

Global Debt (U.S.)

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8.80

9.20

9.60

10.00

10.40

3-Dec-24 19-Dec-24

Global Commodity Movement

Gold Spot ($/Oz) Silver Spot ($/Oz) Brent ($/bbl)

Global Commodity Prices

Rebased to 10

Source: Refinitiv

Performance of various commodities

Commodities

Last Closing* 1-Week Ago

Brent Crude($/Barrel)

76.91 75.7

Gold ($/Oz)

2,639.12 2,620

Gold (Rs/10 gm)

77,098 76,124

Silver ($/Oz)

29.62 29.37

Silver (Rs/Kg)

87,850 87,737

Source: Refinitiv *Value as on Jan 03, 202

Gold

• Gold prices rose on ongoing geopolitical

worries, and the U.S. threat of tariffs

supported the price of gold. Further, prices

rose, driven by safe-haven demand.

However, gains were restricted due to the

strong U.S. dollar.

Brent Crude

• Brent crude oil prices rose after official

data showed that China's manufacturing

activity expanded for the third month in a

row in Dec 2024. Further, prices rose amid

some hopes about the outlook for oil

demand from the world's second-largest

economy, China.

Baltic Dry Index

• The index rose over the week due to

improved capesize and panamax activities.

Commodities Market

03-Jan-25

1.60%

0.73%

0.85%

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9.20

9.40

9.60

9.80

10.00

10.20

3-Dec-24 19-Dec-24

USD GBP Euro JPY

Source: Refinitiv

Currency Prices ( in terms of INR)

Rebased to 10

Currency Movement

Movement of Rupee vs Other Currencies

Currency

Last Closing* 1-Wk Ago

US Dollar

85.76 85.59

Pound Sterling

106.34 107.21

EURO

88.11 89.11

100 Yen

54.53 54.26

Source: Refinitiv Figures in INR , *Value as on

Jan 03, 2025

Rupee

• The Indian rupee in the spot trade fell against

the U.S. dollar due to boosted greenback

demand and declines in other Asian peers.

Euro

• Euro fell slightly against the U.S. dollar as

investors geared up for the return of the U.S.

President-elect to the White House this month.

Pound

• Pound fell against the U.S. dollar as the

prospect that the U.S. Federal Reserve will hold

interest rates higher than peers led the U.S.

currency to dominate rivals.

• Yen fell against the U.S. dollar on expectations

that the U.S. economy will continue to

outperform its peers globally this year.

Currencies Markets

03-Jan-25

0.20%

0.50%

-1.13%

-0.81%

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The Week that was…

Dec to 03

Jan

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The Week that was (Dec 30 – Jan 03)

Date Events

Present

Value

Monday,

December 30, 2024

• India External Debt

- Q2FY25 $711.8B $682.3B

• U.S. Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Nov)

2.20% 1.80%

Tuesday,

December 31, 2024

• India Infrastructure Output (YoY) Nov

4.30% 3.70%

• China NBS Manufacturing PMI (Dec)

50.10 50.30

• U.S. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock (Dec 27)

-1.442M -3.2M

• U.S. S&P/Case

-Shiller Home Price Indices (YoY) (Oct) 4.20% 4.60%

Thursday,

January 02, 2025

• India HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final (Dec)

56.40 56.50

• China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Dec)

50.50 51.50

• Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Dec)

45.10 45.20

• Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Dec)

42.50 42.50

• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (Dec 27)

211K 220K

• U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Dec)

49.40 48.30

Friday,

January 03, 2025

• Germany Unemployment Change (Dec)

10K 7K

• U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI (Dec)

49.3 48.40

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The Week Ahead

Jan to 10

Jan

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The Week Ahead

Day Event

Monday,

Jan 06, 2025

• India HSBC Composite PMI Final (Dec)

• India HSBC Services PMI Final (Dec)

• China Caixin Services PMI (Dec)

• Germany HCOB Composite PMI (Dec)

Tuesday,

Jan 07, 2025

• Eurozone Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) (Dec) Prel

• Eurozone Unemployment Rate (Nov)

• U.S. ISM Services PMI (Dec)

Wednesday,

Jan 08, 2025

• Germany Retail Sales (YoY) (Nov)

• U.S. ADP Employment Change (Dec)

• Eurozone Consumer Confidence (Dec)

• U.S. FOMC Minutes

Thursday,

Jan 09, 2025

• Germany Industrial Production (YoY) (Nov)

• Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) (Nov)

• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (Jan 3)

Friday,

Jan 10, 2025

• India Industrial Production (YoY) Nov

• China Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Dec)

• U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (Dec)

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The information herein is meant only for general reading purposes and contains all factual and statistical information pertaining to Industry and

markets which have been obtained from independent third party sources and which are deemed to be reliable. The information provided cannot be

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