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NEWS U CAN USE
Jan 27, 2023
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The Week that was…
23
rd
Jan to 27
th
Jan
2
Mutual Fund Investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.
Indian Economy
• The United Nations reduced its prediction for India's growth by 20 basis points to 5.8% for
the calendar year 2023, citing lower investment and export growth due to rising interest
rates and the possibility of a global recession.
• According to the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), the number
of new subscribers of the Employees' Provident Funds (EPF) Scheme rose to 899,000 in Nov
2022 from 768,000 in Oct 2022. However, it was over 100,000 lower than the 1 million jobs
created in Sep 2022.
• According to provisional data from government, Indian refiners' crude oil processing rose
around 4% YoY in Dec 2022. Crude oil production fell around 1.2% YoY to 586,700 barrels per
day in Dec 2022 on lower output at certain Oil and Natural Gas Corporation clusters. Crude oil
imports rose on refiners stocking up on cheaper Russian fuel following a steady increase in
consumption in the country.
• Since its debut in July 2020, the Agriculture Infrastructure Fund (AIF) has raised more over Rs.
30,000 crore to support projects involving the construction of post-harvest management
facilities. The AIF is a financing tool for building post-harvest infrastructure and assets for
community farms. By FY25–26, Rs. 1 lakh crore is to be disbursed under this plan, and until
the fiscal year 2032–2033, interest would be subsidised and credit guarantees will be
provided.
3
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4
Domestic Equity Market Indices
Indices 27-Jan-23 1 Week Return YTD Return
S&P BSE Sensex
59,330.9 -2.13% -2.48%
Nifty 50
17,604.35 -2.35% -2.77%
S&P BSE Mid-Cap
24,338.84 -2.66% -3.85%
S&P BSE Small-Cap
27,623.85 -3.52% -4.50%
Source: MFI Explorer;
NSE Advance/Decline Ratio
Date Advances Declines
Advance/Decline Ratio
23-Jan-23 1,013 1,245 0.81
24-Jan-23 867 1,342 0.65
25-Jan-23 522 1,715 0.30
27-Jan-23 390 1,896 0.21
Source: NSE
• Domestic equity markets fell during the
week under review as key benchmark
indices S&P BSE Sensex and Nifty 50 fell
in excess of 2%.
• Domestic equities markets fell during the
week under review amid fear and anxiety
among market participants ahead of the
announcement of the Union Budget
which is due on Feb 1, 2023.
• Market participants worried about higher
borrowing by the Indian government in
the next fiscal.
• Sentiments were further dampened after
the United Nations downgraded its GDP
growth forecast for India for the calendar
year 2023. The United Nations warned
that higher interest rates and global
economic slowdown may adversely
impact domestic exports and
investments.
Ratios
S&P BSE
Sensex
Nifty 50
S&P BSE
Mid Cap
S&P BSE
Small Cap
P/E
22.39 20.70 25.22 22.68
P/B
3.29 4.13 2.83 2.63
Dividend Yield
1.21 1.40 1.27 0.91
Source: BSE, NSE
Value as on Jan 27,
2023;
Indian Equity Market
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5
Sectoral Indices
Indices
Last
Closing*
Returns (in %)
1-Wk 1-Mth
S&P BSE Auto
29,919.3 2.79% 4.21%
S&P BSE Bankex
45,756.1 -5.12% -6.21%
S&P BSE CD
36,978.3 -2.56% -5.13%
S&P BSE CG
33,681.3 -3.39% 0.04%
S&P BSE FMCG
16,107.7 0.91% -0.35%
S&P BSE HC
22,656.6 -0.84% -2.21%
S&P BSE IT
29,574.2 0.37% 3.15%
S&P BSE Metal
21,191.4 -2.44% 2.68%
S&P BSE Oil & Gas
19,480.2 -7.17% -1.91%
Source: Refinitiv
*Value as on Jan 27, 2023
• On the BSE Sectoral front, S&P BSE Power fell
the most by 10.44% followed by S&P BSE Oil &
Gas which lost 7.17% and S&P BSE PSU which
came down 5.32%.
• The sell-off was triggered after a U.S. based
research group flagged concerns over high debt
levels by an Indian multinational conglomerate.
• S&P BSE Auto rose the most by 2.79% after two
major domestic automobile companies reported
upbeat earning numbers for the quarter ended
Dec 2022.
Indian Derivatives Market Review
• Nifty Feb 2023 Futures stood at 17,687.15, a premium of 82.80 points above the spot
closing of 17,604.35.
• The Put-Call ratio stood at 1.02 compared with the previous week’s close of 0.92.
• The Nifty Put-Call ratio stood at 0.74 compared with the previous week’s close of 0.83.
Indian Equity Market (contd.)
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6
Debt Indicators
(%)
Current
Value
1-Wk
Ago
1-Mth
Ago
6-Mth
Ago
Call Rate
6.44 6.27 6.31 5.07
91 Day T-Bill
6.48 6.45 6.38 5.63
05.74% 2026, (5 Yr GOI)
7.14 7.11 7.19 7.01
07.26% 2032, (10 Yr GOI)
7.39 7.35 7.31 --
Source: Refinitiv Value as on Jan 27, 2023
• Bond yields were little changed during
most part of the week with heavy bond
supply during the week and head of the
Union Budget due on Feb 1, 2023. At the
end, bond yields surged after weekly
government bond auction added to the
supply in secondary market.
• Yield on the 10-year benchmark paper
(7.26% GS 2032) rose 4 bps to close at
7.39% as compared to the previous
week’s close of 7.35%.
• Reserve Bank of India conducted auction
of two sovereign green bonds namely
NEW GOI SGrB 2028 and NEW GOI SGrB
2033 for a notified amount of Rs. 8,000
crore which was fully accepted. The cut-
off yield stood at 7.10% and 7.29%
respectively.
Domestic Debt Market
7.20
7.35
7.50
20-Jan 23-Jan 24-Jan 25-Jan 27-Jan
Yield in %
10 -Yr Benchmark Bond ( % )
Source: CCIL
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7
Maturity
G-Sec Yield
(%)
Corporate Yield
(%)
Spread
bps
1 Year
6.86 7.77 91
3 Year
7.24 7.71 47
5 Year
7.33 7.77 44
10 Year
7.52 7.71 19
Source: Refinitiv
Value as on
Jan 27, 2023
• Yields on gilt rose in the range of 4 to 11 bps
across the maturities, barring 7 year paper that
fell 1 bps. Yield rose the most on 2 year paper
and the least on 10 year paper.
• Corporate bond yields fell in the range of 2 to
19 bps across the curve, except 1 to 4 year
papers that rose 1, 3 or 5 bps. Yield fell the
most on 15 year paper.
• Difference in spread between AAA corporate
bond and gilt contracted in the range of 3 to 25
bps across the segments. Spread fell the most
on 15 year paper and the least on 1 year paper.
Domestic Debt Market (Spread Analysis)
0
2
4
6
8
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
3 Mths 6 Mths 1 Yr 5 Yrs 10 Yrs 20 Yrs 30 Yrs
India Yield Curve Shift (%) (W-o-W)
Change in bps 27-Jan-23 20-Jan-23
Yield in %
Change in bps
Source: Refinitiv
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8
• The Reserve Bank of India said that there will be no limits on foreign investment in the
sovereign green bonds that the Indian government will issue. According to a notice from the
central bank, these securities will be counted as defined securities under the fully accessible
route.
• Mutual fund companies have been instructed by AMFI to change their settlement cycles
from T+3 to T+2 from Feb 1, 2023. This happened after the equity market settlement cycle
was changed to a T+1 settlement cycle as of Jan 27, 2023.
• According to the Commerce and Industry Minister, India's service exports are performing
"extremely well," and based on the current trajectory, despite global economic uncertainty,
these outbound shipments will experience a 20% growth in FY23 and surpass the USD 300
billion target. He added that despite the global recession, intense inflationary pressure, and
oversupply of many commodities, exports of goods are currently reporting excellent
growth.
• According to RBI Executive Director, digital currency will support the digital economy even
more, improve payment systems, lower the cost of managing physical cash, and promote
greater financial inclusion.
Regulatory Updates in India
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9
• The Ministry of Ports, Shipping and Waterways launched the national logistics portal–
marine (NLP-M), a single-window platform designed to bring all trade stakeholders
together and lower the cost of logistics through real-time mapping and provisioning. The
platform seeks to reduce regulatory complications by centralizing the required paperwork,
compliance certificates, and formal processes for the EXIM transaction.
• According to the Governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), the global economy is
predicted to decrease severely in 2023, but the worst appears to be behind us in terms of
growth and inflation. He expressed hope for India's economic future, claiming that despite
a hostile and unsettling external environment, the domestic economy remained resilient.
• Indian stock markets achieved a complete transition to the T+1 regime, which has a
shorter settlement cycle, will result in considerable capital savings for investors and better
risk management across the board.
Regulatory Updates in India (contd..)
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• According to the Commerce Department, U.S. real gross domestic product rose 2.9% in the
fourth quarter of 2022 after rising 3.2% in the third quarter of 2022.
• According to the Commerce Department, U.S. durable goods orders rose 5.6% in Dec 2022
as against 1.7% decline in Nov 2022.
• According to the University of Michigan, U.S. consumer sentiment index was upwardly
revised to 64.9 in Jan 2023 from the preliminary reading of 64.6.
• According to GfK, Germany’s forward-looking consumer confidence index rose to -33.9 Feb
2023 from -37.6 in Jan 2023. The improvement came amid the sustained recovery in both
economic and income expectations as energy prices climbed less dramatically and the
government implemented cost-cutting measures.
• According to Bank of England, U.K. output price inflation unexpectedly slowed 14.7% in
Dec 2022 from 16.2% in Nov 2022. Similarly, input price inflation moderated 16.5% in Dec
from 18% in Nov.
• According to S&P Global, Japan’s flash composite output index rose to 50.8 in Jan 2023
from 49.7 in Dec 2022. Japan's private sector returned to growth territory in Jan as travel
subsidy programme uplifted services activity.
• According to the Cabinet office, Japan’s leading index, which measures future economic
activity, fell to 97.4 in Nov 2022 from 98.6 in Oct 2022.
10
Global News/Economy
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11
Global Indices
Indices
27-Jan-23
1-Week
Return
YTD
Return
Russell 3000 1,859.82 3.34% 8.33%
Nasdaq 100 12,166.6 4.71% 11.21%
FTSE 100 7,765.15 -0.07% 4.21%
DAX Index 15,150.03 0.77% 8.81%
Nikkei Average 27,382.56 3.12% 4.94%
Straits Times 3,394.21 3.05% 4.39%
Source: Refinitiv
Value as on Jan 27, 2023;
U.S.
• U.S. equity markets rose during the week
under review following the release of some
upbeat U.S. economic data which boosted
market sentiments. The U.S. economy grew
more than expected in the fourth quarter
of 2022, initial jobless claims in U.S. came
down for the week ended Jan 21 and U.S.
durable goods orders, personal income,
new home sales and pending home sales
grew in Dec 2022.
Europe
• European equity markets mostly rose as market sentiments were boosted following an
improvement in German business sentiment and a surge in eurozone manufacturing activity
in Jan 2023. The data led to optimism that a recession in the euro zone might be avoided.
However, mass layoffs by tech companies weighed on the market sentiment. Market
participants also exercised caution as they awaited interest rate decisions from the U.S.
Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England.
Asia
• Asian equity markets rose following positive cues from U.S. equity markets. Optimism over
a demand boost from China's reopening and expectations that U.S. Federal Reserve will
slow down the pace of rate hikes citing slowing wage and inflation growth added to the
gains.
Global Equity Markets
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12
• Yields on the 10-year U.S. Treasury rose 4
bps to close at 3.52% as compared to the
previous weekly close of 3.48%.
• The U.S. Treasury prices fell on fears that the
U.S. economy may soon enter a recession.
• Treasury prices declined further after U.S.
GDP data showed resilience in the U.S.
economy. Losses increased after inflation
data in Japan, surprised on the upside.
• However, losses were limited ahead of the
U.S Fed policy decision on Feb 01, 2023,
which is widely expected to deliver a smaller
25 bps rate increase.
Global Debt (U.S.)
3.11
3.37
3.62
3.87
23-Jan 24-Jan 25-Jan 26-Jan 27-Jan
Yield in %
US 10-Year Treasury Yield Movement
Source: Refinitiv
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13
Performance of various commodities
Commodities
Last Closing* 1-Week Ago
Brent Crude($/Barrel)
85.76 88.29
Gold ($/Oz)
1,927.34 1,926.57
Gold (Rs/10 gm)
56,878 56,770
Silver ($/Oz)
23.56 23.95
Silver (Rs/Kg)
68,173 68,206
Source: Refinitiv *Value as on Jan 27, 2023;
Gold
• Gold prices inched up as market
participants awaited the outcome of the
U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy
review.
Brent Crude
• Brent crude oil prices fell amid indications
of strong oil supply from Russia which
offset better-than-expected U.S. economic
growth data for the fourth quarter of
2022. However, further losses were
restricted as normalization of the Chinese
economy due to easing concerns of COVID-
19 pandemic in the region boosted
expectations of a recovery in oil demand.
Baltic Dry Index
• The index fell over the week due to
sluggish capesize and panamax activities.
Commodities Market
9.00
9.40
9.80
10.20
10.60
11.00
27-Dec-22 6-Jan-23 16-Jan-23
Global Commodity Movement
Gold Spot ($/Oz) Silver Spot ($/Oz) Brent ($/bbl)
Global Commodity Prices
Rebased to 10
Source: Refinitiv
0.04%
-2.87%
-1.61%
27-Jan-23
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14
Movement of Rupee vs Other Currencies
Currency
Last Closing* 1-Wk Ago
US Dollar
81.54 81.22
Pound Sterling
100.96 100.54
EURO
88.66 87.99
100 Yen
62.77 62.92
Source: Refinitiv Figures in INR , *
Value as on Jan 27, 2023
Rupee
• The Indian rupee in the spot trade weakened
against the greenback following losses in the
domestic equity market. Dollar purchases from
state run banks added to the losses.
Euro
• Euro rose against the U.S. dollar on growing
possibility of interest rate hike by the
European Central Bank in its upcoming
monetary policy review.
Pound
• Pound was almost steady against the
greenback as a gloomy outlook of the British
economy kept the former under pressure.
Yen
• Yen fell against the U.S. dollar after the U.S.
economy grew better than expected in the
fourth quarter of 2022.
Currencies Markets
9.70
10.00
10.30
27-Dec-22 6-Jan-23 16-Jan-23 26-Jan-23
USD GBP Euro JPY
Source: Refinitiv
Currency Prices ( in terms of INR)
Rebased to 10
Currency Movement
0.40%
-0.24%
0.76%
0.42%
27-Jan-23
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15
The Week that was…
23
rd
Jan to 27
th
Jan
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16
The Week that was (Jan 23 – Jan 27)
Date Events
Present
Value
Previous
Value
Monday,
January 23, 2023
• Eurozone Consumer Confidence (Jan) PREL -20.9 -22.2
Tuesday,
January 24, 2023
• Germany S&P Global/BME Composite PMI(Jan) PREL 49.7 49
• Eurozone S&P Global Composite PMI(Jan) PREL 50.2 49.3
• U.K. S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI(Jan) PREL 47.8 49
• U.S. S&P Global Composite PMI(Jan) PREL 46.6 45
Wednesday,
January 25, 2023
• Germany IFO – Business Climate(Jan) 90.2 88.6
• U.K. PPI Core Output (YoY) (Dec) 12.40% 13%
• Japan Leading Economic Index(Nov) 97.4 97.6
Thursday,
January 26, 2023
• U.S. Durable Goods Orders(Dec) 5.60% -1.70%
• U.S. Gross Domestic Product Annualized (Q4) PREL 2.90% 3.20%
• U.S. New Home Sales (MoM)(Dec) 0.616M 0.602M
• U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ)(Q4) PREL 3.20% 4.30%
Friday,
January 27, 2023
• U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Jan) 64.9 64.6
• U.S. Personal Income (MoM)(Dec) 0.20% 0.30%
• U.K. Pending Home Sales (MoM)(Dec) 2.50% -2.60%
• Eurozone M3 Money Supply (YoY)(Dec) 4.10% 4.80%
Mutual Fund Investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.
17
The Week Ahead
30
th
Jan to 03
rd
Feb
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18
Day Event
Monday,
Jan 30, 2023
• Germany Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)(Q4) PREL
• Eurozone Consumer Confidence (Jan)
Tuesday,
Jan 31, 2023
• India Government Budget Value (Dec)
• India Infrastructure Output YoY (Dec)
• China Non-Manufacturing PMI (Dec)
• Germany Retail Sales (YoY)(Dec)
• Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)(Q4) PREL
• Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)(Jan) PREL
Wednesday,
Feb 01, 2023
• India S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
• Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)(Jan) PREL
• U.S. ADP Employment Change (Jan)
• U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
Thursday,
Feb 02, 2023
• U.S. Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
• Bank of England Interest Rate Decision
• European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision
Friday,
Feb 03, 2023
• India S&P Global Services PMI (Jan)
• U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan)
• U.S. ISM Services PMI (Jan)
The Week Ahead
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The information herein is meant only for general reading purposes and contains all factual and statistical information pertaining to Industry and
markets which have been obtained from independent third party sources and which are deemed to be reliable. The information provided cannot be
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