News You Can Use of 31 January 2024

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NEWS U CAN USE

Jan 31, 2025

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The Week that was…

Jan to 31

Jan

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Indian Economy

• Government data showed that India’s fiscal deficit for the period from Apr to Dec of FY25

stood at Rs. 9.14 lakh crore or 56.7% of the Budget Estimates (BE) of the current fiscal.

India’s fiscal deficit was at 55.0% of the BE in the corresponding period of the previous

fiscal year. Total expenditure stood at Rs. 32.3 lakh crore or 67.0% of the BE as compared

to 67.8% of the BE in the corresponding period of the previous fiscal year.

• According to the Ministry of Commerce & Industry, the combined Index of Eight Core

Industries increased by 4.0% YoY in Dec 2024 as compared to 5.1% growth in Dec 2023. All

the components of the Eight Core Industries witnessed growth in Dec 2024 over the

corresponding month of last year except natural gas, with coal production witnessed the

highest rate of growth with 5.3% followed by steel and electricity with 5.1% each, while

crude oil rose the least by 0.6% followed by fertilizers by 1.7%.

• According to the Economic Survey 2024-25, the percentage of self-employed individuals in

India's workforce has increased to 58.4% in 2023-24 from 52.2% in 2017-18, indicating a

rise in entrepreneurial activity and inclination towards flexible work options.

• According to the Household Consumption Expenditure Survey, conducted by the ministry

of statistics and programme implementation between Aug 2023 and Jul 2024, the rural-

urban spending gap narrowed to 69.7% in 2023-24 from 71.2% in 2022-23. In rural areas,

the average monthly per capita consumption expenditure increased by 9.2% to Rs. 4,122

in 2023-24 from Rs. 3,773 in the year before. In urban areas, the increase was 8.3% to Rs.

6,996.

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Domestic Equity Market Indices

Indices

31-Jan-25 1 Week Return YTD Return

BSE Sensex

77,500.57 1.72% -0.82%

Nifty 50

23,508.40 1.80% -0.58%

BSE Mid

-Cap 43,096.45 0.89% -7.21%

BSE Small

-Cap 49,958.39 -0.30% -9.46%

Source: Refinitiv

Values as on Jan 31, 2025

• Domestic equity markets rose after

witnessing fall for three consecutive

weeks as key benchmark indices BSE

Sensex and Nifty 50 rose 1.72% and

1.80%, respectively. The mid-cap

segment closed the week in green,

however, the small-cap segment closed

the week in red.

• Domestic equity markets rose as

sentiment was boosted after the RBI

announced several measures to inject

over Rs. 1 lakh crore liquidity into the

banking system, which also raised the

expectations of policy easing by the RBI

in its Feb 2025 monetary policy

meeting. Gains were extended as

encouraging earnings updates from the

prominent U.S. tech companies offset

U.S President’s renewed tariff threats

and concerns over China's growing

artificial intelligence capabilities.

Ratios

BSE Sensex

Nifty 50 BSE Mid Cap

BSE Small

Cap

P/E

22.05 21.33 35.23 22.52

P/B

3.99 3.51 4.40 3.89

Dividend Yield

1.18 1.38 0.80 1.23

Source: NSE, BSE

Values as on Jan 31, 2025

Indian Equity Market

NSE Advance/Decline Ratio

Date

Advances Declines Advance/Decline Ratio

27-Jan-25 300 2,571 0.12

28-Jan-25 840 2,005 0.42

29-Jan-25 2,274 532 4.27

30-Jan-25 1,502 1,288 1.17

31-Jan-25 2,080 728 2.86

Source: NSE

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Sectoral Indices

Indices

Last Returns (in %)

Closing 1-Wk 1-Mth

BSE Auto

51,526.85 3.12% -0.26%

BSE Bankex

56,257.36 2.80% -2.57%

BSE CD

57,851.89 -0.55% -10.22%

BSE CG

64,529.77 3.69% -4.79%

BSE FMCG

20,555.27 0.92% -1.04%

BSE HC

41,802.57 -0.95% -7.67%

BSE IT

41,955.58 -1.77% -2.85%

BSE Metal

28,569.54 0.23% -1.12%

BSE Oil & Gas

25,428.97 0.98% -2.44%

Source:BSE

Values as on Jan 31, 2025

• On the BSE sectoral front, BSE Realty, BSE Auto

& BSE Bankex rose 6.46%, 3.12% & 2.80%,

respectively, as theses rate sensitive sector

gained following the RBI’s announcement to

inject liquidity in the banking system.

• The central bank decided to purchase

government securities through Open Market

Operations for an aggregate amount of Rs.

60,000 crore between Jan 30 & Feb 13, 2025

and conduct 56-day Variable Rate Repo auction

for a notified amount of Rs. 50,000 crore on Feb

7, 2025.

Indian Derivatives Market Review

• Nifty Feb 2025 Futures stood at 23,620.20, a premium of 111.80 points above the spot

closing of 23,508.40.

• The total turnover on NSE’s Futures and Options segment for the week stood at Rs. 918.63

lakh crore as against Rs. 951.86 lakh crore for the week to Jan 24.

• The Put-Call ratio stood at 0.87 compared with the previous week’s close of 0.93.

• The Nifty Put-Call ratio stood at 1.01 compared with the previous week’s close of 0.65.

Indian Equity Market (contd.)

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6.67

6.68

6.69

6.70

27-Jan 28-Jan 29-Jan 30-Jan 31-Jan

Yield in %

10 -Yr Benchmark Bond ( % )

Source: CCIL

Debt Indicators

(%)

Current

Value

1-Wk

Ago

1-Mth

Ago

6-Mth

Ago

Call Rate

6.60 6.57 6.88 6.49

91 Day T-Bill

6.57 6.61 6.58 6.65

07.06% 2028, (5 Yr GOI)

6.63 6.64 6.72 6.84

06.79% 2034, (10 Yr GOI)

6.70 6.72 6.76 6.96

Source: Refinitiv Values as on Jan 31, 2025

• Bond yields mostly remained steady as

the RBI's announcement of measures to

address the bank liquidity shortage was

outweighed by profit booking by the

market participants. The liquidity infusion

package, which includes the purchase of

bonds worth Rs. 60,000 crore in three

tranches of Rs. 20,000 each.

• Yield on the 10-year benchmark paper

(6.79% GS 2034) fell by 2 bps to close at

6.70% from the previous week’s close of

6.72%.

• Data from Reserve Bank of India showed

that India's foreign exchange reserves

increased to $629.56 billion for the week

ended Jan 24, 2025 compared with

$623.98 billion a week earlier.

Domestic Debt Market

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-6

-3

6.30

6.60

6.90

7.20

3 Mths 6 Mths 1 Yr 5 Yrs 10 Yrs 20 Yrs 30 Yrs

India Yield Curve Shift (%) (W-o-W)

Change in bps 31-Jan-25 24-Jan-25

Yield in %

Change in bps

Source: Refinitiv

Maturity

G-Sec Yield

(%)

Corporate Yield

(%)

Spread

bps

1 Year 6.68 7.67 99

3 Year 6.72 7.43 71

5 Year 6.73 7.3 57

10 Year 6.81 7.19 38

Source: Refinitiv

Values as on Jan 31, 2025

• Yields on gilt were unchanged or moved by 1 bps

across the maturities, barring 1, 12 & 30 year papers

that rose by 5, 3 & 4 bps, respectively, and 2, 10 &

19 year papers that fell by 2 bps each.

• Corporate bond yields were unchanged or moved

by 1 bps across the curve, barring 1, 2 & 3 year

papers that increased by 13, 7 & 3 bps, respectively.

• Difference in spread between AAA corporate bond

and gilt expanded up to 9 bps across the segments,

barring 4 year paper remained steady.

Domestic Debt Market (Spread Analysis)

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• According to a circular by SEBI, mutual funds distributors cannot associate with those who

give advice or recommendations on securities without being registered by the SEBI or make

claims of returns or performance without approval from the SEBI.

• According to the recent amendment by the IRDAI, the insurance regulator has asked

insurance intermediaries such as brokers and insurance marketing firms to maintain records

of clients’ interactions, commission income and complaints. The insurance intermediaries

will have to keep business details like customer profile, employee specific details, legal

information and phone numbers of their clients. The IRDAI clarified that all these records

must be kept for at least 10 years or as legally required, starting from the last transaction

date or the policy's expiry date, whichever is later.

• The RBI has tightened regulations under the Payment and Settlement Systems Act to

ensure compliance and enforcement actions. The revised framework allows for imposing

higher penalties of up to Rs. 10 lakh for contraventions and compounding offences, with

additional fines for ongoing defaults.

• The ministry of statistics and programme implementation is looking to incorporate new data

sources for estimating the informal sector in the economy in the revised gross domestic

product series, with a base year of 2022-23. Industries like agriculture & allied activities,

certain manufacturing sectors, construction, trade, road transport, hotel & restaurants and

personal services were identified as having significant informality.

Regulatory Updates in India

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• The ministry of labour and employment launched the Occupational Shortage Index (OSI)

that will provide data-driven insights into occupations facing shortages, helping align job

seekers' skills with industry demands, while also supporting policymakers, training

institutions, and businesses in bridging skill gaps in high-demand sectors.

• The government has approved the Mutual Credit Guarantee Scheme for Micro, Small and

Medium Enterprises (MSMEs), guaranteeing loans up to Rs. 100 crore, with an aim to

provide collateral-free loans to MSMEs for purchasing equipment and machinery,

promoting manufacturing growth, which offers 60% guarantee coverage and

accommodates flexible repayment schedules.

• Central Board of Indirect Taxes and Customs clarified that GST will not be charged on

penal charges levied by banks and NBFCs. Additionally, GST exemption applies to Payment

Aggregators for transactions up to Rs. 2,000, but not to Payment Gateway services.

Regulatory Updates in India (contd..)

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• According to the Commerce Department, U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE)

price index rose by 0.3% in Dec 2024 after inching up by 0.1% in Nov 2024. The increase

matched expectations. The annual rate of growth of the PCE price index accelerated to

2.6% in Dec 2024 from 2.4% in Nov 2024, which was also in line with estimates.

• According to the Commerce Department, U.S. gross domestic product shot up by 2.3% in

the fourth quarter of 2024 after surging by 3.1% in the third quarter. Economists had

expected GDP to jump by 2.6%.

• The U.S. Federal Reserve announced its widely expected decision to leave interest rates

unchanged on 29th Jan, 2025 following its first monetary policy meeting of 2025. The U.S.

Fed decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4.25 to 4.50% in

support of its dual goals of maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the

longer run.

• The European Central Bank lowered its interest rates for a fourth policy session in a row on

30th Jan, 2025, to its lowest level in two years. The Governing Council, led by ECB

President lowered the benchmark - the deposit rate - by 25 basis points to 2.75%. The rate

is now at the lowest level since Feb 2023 when it was at 2.50%. The main refinancing rate

was trimmed by a similar volume to 2.90% and the lending rate to 3.15%, respectively.

• According to the Ministry of Economy and Trade, Japan’s industrial output climbs 0.3% in

Dec 2024. That beat forecasts for a decline of 0.1% following the 2.2% contraction in Nov

2024. On a yearly basis, production sank 1.1%.

Global News/Economy

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Global Indices

Indices

31-Jan-25

1-Week

Return

YTD

Return

Russell 3000 3,224.83 -1.52% 2.00%

Nasdaq 100 21,478.05 -1.36% 2.22%

FTSE 100 8,673.96 2.02% 6.13%

DAX Index 21,732.05 1.58% 9.16%

Nikkei Average 39,572.49 -0.90% -0.81%

Straits Times 3,855.82 1.36% 1.80%

Source: Refinitiv Value as on Jan 31,

2025

U.S.

• U.S. equity markets mostly fell after the

U.S. government press secretary

confirmed the U.S. President’s

threatened tariffs will be levied against

major U.S. trading partners beginning on

1st Feb, 2025. Furthermore, the market

fell after the U.S. Federal Reserve made

its anticipated announcement to maintain

interest rates at their current level on

29th Jan, 2025 after concluding its initial

monetary policy meeting of 2025.

Europe

• European equity markets rose after the European Central Bank delivered a widely

expected 25-basis point interest-rate cut on 30th Jan, 2025 and guided for a further

reduction in Mar 2025 due to concerns about economic growth. However, concerns

regarding the U.S. President’s tariff threats and policies weighed on market sentiment.

Asia

• Asian equity markets closed on a mixed note. The Japanese markets fell as technology

shares were adversely affected by apprehensions surrounding a newly introduced Chinese

artificial intelligence model. The market sentiment hit further on concerns about the U.S.

tariff plans.

Global Equity Markets

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4.48

4.50

4.52

4.54

4.56

4.58

27-Jan 28-Jan 29-Jan 30-Jan 31-Jan

Yield in %

US 10-Year Treasury Yield Movement

Source: Refinitiv

• Yields on the 10-year U.S. Treasury fell

by 5 bps to close at 4.57% from the

previous week’s close of 4.62%.

• U.S. Treasury prices rose as investors

sought the safety of government bonds,

declining in technology stocks following

the introduction of a discounted

artificial intelligence model from China.

• However, gains were restricted ahead of

new U.S. tariffs to be levied on imports

from Mexico, Canada and China, and as

investors weighed data showing strong

consumer spending and a moderate

increase in the U.S. personal

consumption expenditures (PCE) price

index in Dec 2024.

Global Debt (U.S.)

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9.00

9.50

10.00

10.50

11.00

11.50

31-Dec-24 16-Jan-25

Global Commodity Movement

Gold Spot ($/Oz) Silver Spot ($/Oz) Brent ($/bbl)

Global Commodity Prices

Rebased to 10

Source: Refinitiv

Performance of various commodities

Commodities

Last Closing* 1-Week Ago

Brent Crude($/Barrel)

78.2 79.35

Gold ($/Oz)

2,801 2,771.30

Gold (Rs/10 gm)

81,798 80,105

Silver ($/Oz)

31.30 30.61

Silver (Rs/Kg)

93,196 91,011

Source: Refinitiv *Value as on Jan 31,

2025

Gold

• Gold prices rose driven by a surge in buying

safe haven assets in response to the U.S.

President’s tariff threats, which intensified

worries regarding global economic growth

and inflationary pressures. However, gains

were restricted after the U.S. Fed held

interest rates steady as widely expected.

Brent Crude

• Brent crude oil prices fell amid uncertainty

about implementation of the U.S.

President’s proposed tariff plans on

Canada and Mexico. Further, prices fell on

easing worries about supply disruptions

from Libya and the likelihood of increased

U.S. production.

Baltic Dry Index

• The index fell over the week due to

sluggish capesize and panamax activities.

Commodities Market

31-Jan-25

-1.45%

1.07%

2.28%

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9.40

9.60

9.80

10.00

10.20

10.40

31-Dec-24 16-Jan-25

USD GBP Euro JPY

Source: Refinitiv

Currency Prices ( in terms of INR)

Rebased to 10

Currency Movement

Movement of Rupee vs Other Currencies

Currency

Last Closing* 1-Wk Ago

US Dollar

86.64 86.29

Pound Sterling

107.62 107.09

EURO

90.01 90.21

100 Yen

55.96 55.59

Source: Refinitiv Figures in INR , *Value as on Jan

31, 2025

Rupee

• The Indian rupee in the spot trade fell against

the U.S. dollar due to strong greenback demand

and foreign fund outflows.

Euro

• Euro fell against the U.S. dollar after the

European Central Bank (ECB) enacted a widely

anticipated interest rate cut of 25 basis points.

Pound

• Pound rose against the U.S. dollar after the U.S.

government press secretary confirmed that the

U.S. President would announce tariffs on

Canadian and Mexican imports on 1st Feb,

2025.

• Yen rose against the U.S. dollar despite the U.S.

government press secretary confirmed that the

President of the U.S. is likely to declare tariffs

on imports from Canada and Mexico.

Currencies Markets

31-Jan-25

0.41%

0.67%

-0.23%

0.50%

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The Week that was…

Jan to 31

Jan

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The Week that was (Jan 27 – Jan 31)

Date Events

Present

Value

Monday,

January 27, 2025

• China NBS Manufacturing PMI (Jan)

49.10 50.10

• Germany IFO

– Current Assessment (Jan) 86.10 85.10

• U.S. New Home Sales Change (MoM) (Dec)

3.60% 9.60%

Tuesday,

January 28, 2025

• U.S. Durable Goods Orders (Dec)

-2.20% -2.00%

• U.S. Housing Price Index (MoM) (Nov)

0.30% 0.40%

Wednesday,

January 29, 2025

• Germany GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (Feb)

-22.40 -21.40

• U.S. Fed Interest Rate Decision

4.50% 4.50%

• Japan Consumer Confidence Index (Jan)

35.20 36.20

Thursday,

January 30, 2025

• Germany Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q4) Prel

-0.20% 0.10%

• Eurozone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) (Q4) Prel

0.00% 0.40%

• U.S. Gross Domestic Product Annualized (Q4) Prel

2.30% 3.10%

• European Central Bank (ECB) Main Refinancing Operations Rate

2.90% 3.15%

• Eurozone Unemployment Rate (Dec)

6.30% 6.20%

Friday,

January 31, 2025

• India Infrastructure Output YoY DEC

4.00% 4.30%

• Germany Retail Sales (YoY) (Dec)

1.80% 2.90%

• Germany Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Jan) Prel

-0.20% 0.50%

• Germany Unemployment Change (Dec)

11K 10K

• U.S. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures

- Price Index (MoM) (Dec) 0.20% 0.10%

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The Week Ahead

Feb to 07

Feb

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The Week Ahead

Day Event

Monday,

Feb 03, 2025

• India HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final JAN

• Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Jan)

• U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan)

Tuesday,

Feb 04, 2025

• U.S. Factory Orders (MoM) (Dec)

• U.S. JOLTS Job Openings (Dec)

• Japan Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) (Dec)

Wednesday,

Feb 05, 2025

• India HSBC Composite PMI Final JAN

• India HSBC Services PMI Final JAN

• China Caixin Services PMI (Jan)

• U.S. ADP Employment Change (Jan)

• U.S. ISM Services PMI (Jan)

Thursday,

Feb 06, 2025

• Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) (Dec)

• Bank of England (BoE) Interest Rate Decision

• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (Jan 31)

Friday,

Feb 07, 2025

• India RBI Interest Rate Decision

• Germany Industrial Production (MoM) (Dec)

• U.S. Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jan)

• U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan)

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The information herein is meant only for general reading purposes and contains all factual and statistical information pertaining to Industry and

markets which have been obtained from independent third party sources and which are deemed to be reliable. The information provided cannot be

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