News You Can Use of 15 March 2024

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NEWS U CAN USE

March 15, 2024

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The Week that was…

Mar to 15

Mar

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Indian Economy

• The consumer price index-based inflation eased to 5.09% YoY in Feb 2024 compared to

5.10% in Jan 2024. The retail inflation remained below the central bank’s upper tolerance

level for consecutive six months. However, the consumer food price inflation increased to

8.66% in Feb 2024 from 8.30% in Jan 2024.

• Industrial production growth in India (IIP) slowed to 3.8% YoY in Jan 2024, as compared to

4.3% rise in Dec 2023. Production in the manufacturing industry increased by 3.2%, mining

by 5.9% and electricity by 5.6% in Jan 2024.

• India’s wholesale price index (WPI) based inflation eased to 0.20% YoY in Feb 2024 as

compared to 0.27% in Jan 2024. Positive rate of inflation in Feb 2024 is primarily due to

increase in prices of food articles, crude petroleum & natural gas, electricity, machinery &

equipment and motor vehicles.

• India’s merchandise trade deficit widened to $18.71 billion in Feb 2024 from $16.57 billion

in Feb 2023. Exports soared 11.9% to $41.40 billion in Feb 2024 from $37.01 billion of the

same month of previous year and imports also increased by 12.2% to $60.11 billion from

$53.58 billion during the same period.

• According to data compiled by Solvent Extractors' Association of India, India’s cooking oil

imports fell by 13% YoY in Feb 2024, while the country’s total cooking oil stock level

decreased by 30%.

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Domestic Equity Market Indices

Indices

15-Mar-24 1 Week Return YTD Return

S&P BSE Sensex

72,643.43 -1.99% 0.56%

Nifty 50

22,023.35 -2.09% 1.34%

S&P BSE Mid

-Cap 38,250.44 -4.02% 3.83%

S&P BSE Small

-Cap 42,012.75 -5.91% -1.55%

Source: Refinitiv

Values as on Mar 15, 2024

• Domestic equity markets fell after

witnessing rise for four consecutive

weeks as key benchmark indices S&P

BSE Sensex and Nifty 50 fell 1.99% and

2.09% respectively. The fall was broad-

based as the mid-cap and small-cap

segment both closed the week in red

with significant losses.

• Domestic equity markets fell during the

week as heavy sell-off was witnessed

across the segments, especially in the

mid-cap and small-cap segments,

before the release of the stress test

result on mid-cap & small-cap schemes

on Mar 15, 2024. Sentiments were

dampened following the higher-than-

expected U.S. producer price inflation

data in Feb 2024 which raised doubts

on rate cut in Jun 2024 by the U.S.

central bank.

Ratios

S&P BSE

Sensex

Nifty 50

S&P BSE

Mid Cap

S&P BSE

Small Cap

P/E

24.84 22.74 26.73 29.83

P/B

3.69 3.86 3.49 3.23

Dividend Yield

1.12 1.22 0.95 0.71

Source: NSE, BSE

Values as on Mar 15, 2024

Indian Equity Market

NSE Advance/Decline Ratio

Date

Advances Declines Advance/Decline Ratio

11-Mar-24 523 2,082 0.25

12-Mar-24 414 2,182 0.19

13-Mar-24 148 2,443 0.06

14-Mar-24 2,022 556 3.64

15-Mar-24 1,112 1,426 0.78

Source: NSE

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Sectoral Indices

Indices

Last Returns (in %)

Closing 1-Wk 1-Mth

S&P BSE Auto

46,319.82 -4.27% 0.71%

S&P BSE Bankex

52,832.61 -2.87% 0.57%

S&P BSE CD

50,559.14 -4.01% 0.80%

S&P BSE CG

56,820.05 -4.45% 2.87%

S&P BSE FMCG

19,384.42 -0.87% 0.77%

S&P BSE HC

33,910.35 -2.82% -3.26%

S&P BSE IT

37,926.76 0.48% -1.76%

S&P BSE Metal

26,535.70 -7.66% -3.18%

S&P BSE Oil & Gas

26,886.33 -5.55% -7.66%

Source:BSE

Values as on Mar 15, 2024

• On the BSE Sectoral front, most of the sectors

fell during the week due to a broad-based sell-

off.

• Among them S&P BSE Realty fell the most

followed by S&P BSE PSU and S&P BSE METAL

which fell by 9.33%, 8.49% and 7.66%

respectively. However, S&P BSE IT managed to

close the week in green with 0.48% gain.

Indian Derivatives Market Review

• Nifty Mar 2024 Futures stood at 22,133.20, a premium of 109.85 points above the spot

closing of 22,023.35.

• The total turnover on NSE’s Futures and Options segment for the week stood at Rs.

2018.82 lakh crore as against Rs. 1703.13 lakh crore for the week to Mar 07.

• The Put-Call ratio stood at 0.96 compared with the previous week’s close of 0.98.

• The Nifty Put-Call ratio stood at 0.99 compared with the previous week’s close of 1.07.

Indian Equity Market (contd.)

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6.98

7.00

7.02

7.04

7.06

7.08

11-Mar 12-Mar 13-Mar 14-Mar 15-Mar

Yield in %

10 -Yr Benchmark Bond ( % )

Source: CCIL

Debt Indicators

(%)

Current

Value

1-Wk

Ago

1-Mth

Ago

6-Mth

Ago

Call Rate

6.63 6.54 6.66 6.75

91 Day T-Bill

6.88 6.91 7.06 6.86

05.74% 2026, (5 Yr GOI)

7.03 7.04 7.01 7.02

07.18% 2033, (10 Yr GOI)

7.06 7.03 7.09 7.16

Source: Refinitiv Values as on Mar 15, 2024

• Bond yields rose in tandem with increase

in U.S. Treasury yields due to

unexpectedly high inflation data in the

U.S. in Feb 2024. Losses were extended

as higher-than-expected producer prices

reading in the U.S. for Feb 2024 led to

further uncertainty for the interest cut in

Jun 2024 by the U.S. central bank.

However, losses were restricted

supported by continuous purchasing

from foreign investors.

• Yield on the 10-year benchmark paper

(7.18% GS 2033) rose by 3 bps to close at

7.06% from the previous week’s close of

7.03%.

• Data from Reserve Bank of India showed

that India's foreign exchange reserves

increased to $636.10 billion for the week

ended Mar 08, 2024 compared with

$625.63 billion a week earlier.

Domestic Debt Market

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-10

-5

6.70

6.80

6.90

7.00

7.10

7.20

3 Mths 6 Mths 1 Yr 5 Yrs 10 Yrs 20 Yrs 30 Yrs

India Yield Curve Shift (%) (W-o-W)

Change in bps 15-Mar-24 07-Mar-24

Yield in %

Change in bps

Source: Refinitiv

Maturity

G-Sec Yield

(%)

Corporate Yield

(%)

Spread

bps

1 Year 7.25 7.99 74

3 Year 7.19 7.73 54

5 Year 7.18 7.65 47

10 Year 7.19 7.61 42

Source: Refinitiv

Values as on Mar 15, 2024

• Yields on gilt rose between 2 to 6 bps across the

maturities, barring 11 year paper that fell by 1 bps,

while 19 year paper was unchanged.

• Corporate bond yields increased between 3 to 35

bps across the curve, barring 2 to 4 year papers that

fell between 2 to 6 bps.

• Difference in spread between AAA corporate bond

and gilt expanded between 7 to 33 bps across the

segments, barring 2 to 4 year papers that

contracted between 5 to 9 bps, while 1 & 5 year

papers remained steady.

Domestic Debt Market (Spread Analysis)

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• According to media reports, Index providers (IPs) like BSE, MSCI, and NSE will now be

governed by SEBI. The market regulator issued the SEBI (Index Providers) Regulations, 2024

in order to provide IPs in the securities market a regulatory framework and increase their

transparency and accountability in the governance and administration of indices.

• India and the European Free Trade Association countries which includes Switzerland,

Iceland, Norway, and Liechtenstein, signed a free-trade agreement, which may be

instrumental in India receiving $100 billion as foreign direct investment in 15 years with 1

million jobs.

• Central government decided to exempt the gold imported by the Reserve Bank of India

from import duty and Agriculture Infrastructure Development Cess (AIDC). An import duty

of 15%, which includes 5% of AIDC, is typically applied to gold imports.

• The Indian government and the Asian Development Bank signed a USD 23 million loan

agreement in order to improve access to high-quality fintech education, research, and

innovation at the Gujarat International Finance Tec-City.

• The Ministry of Road Transport and Highways has approved funding totaling Rs. 699.19

crore for the purpose of upgrading a portion of National Highway 58 in Palanpur, Gujarat.

This allocation will be utilized for enhancing the Khokhra Gujarat Border - Vijayanagar -

Antarsuba - Mathasur road section of NH-58.

Regulatory Updates in India

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• The government announced that oil marketing companies have lowered the pump prices

of petrol and diesel after a record 22 months by Rs. 2 per litre w.e.f. Mar 15, 2024.

• The Central Board of Direct Taxation, through CAMS, has directed the mutual fund

industry, including asset management companies, mutual fund distributors and exchange

platforms to make sure that the investor's name and date of birth, as shown on PAN or IT

records, match exactly on the mutual fund folios. The RTAs will have to reject all

transactions, including SIPs and redemptions, if the name and date of birth on the MF

folios and PAN don't match.

Regulatory Updates in India (contd..)

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• According to the Labor Department, U.S. producer price index for final demand climbed by

0.6% in Feb 2024 after rising by 0.3% in Jan 2024. Economists had expected producer

prices to rise by another 0.3%.

• According to the Labor Department, U.S. consumer price index climbed by 0.4% in Feb

2024 after rising by 0.3% in Jan 2024. The advance matched expectations.

• According to Eurostat, eurozone’s industrial output fell 3.2% on a monthly basis in Jan

2024, reversing Dec's 2023 1.6% increase. This was the first decrease in three months and

also came in weaker than economists' forecast of 1.5% fall.

• According to Destatis, Germany’s wholesale prices dropped 3.0% on a yearly basis in Feb

2024, sharper than the 2.7% fall in Jan 2024. Wholesale prices have been falling since Apr

2023.

• According to the Office for National Statistics, U.K. gross domestic product posted an

expansion of 0.2% in Jan 2024, reversing a 0.1% fall in Dec 2023. The rate came in line with

expectations.

• According to Destatis, Germany’s consumer price inflation slowed to 2.5% in Feb 2024

from 2.9% in Jan 2024. The last time inflation was lower was in Jun 2021, when it stood at

2.4%.

• According to the Cabinet Office, Japan’s gross domestic product expanded a seasonally

adjusted 0.1% on quarter in the fourth quarter of 2023. That was shy of forecasts for an

increase of 0.3% following the 0.7% contraction in the previous three months.

Global News/Economy

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Global Indices

Indices

15-Mar-24

1-Week

Return

YTD

Return

Russell 3000 2,608.39 -0.34% 8.56%

NASDAQ 100 17,808.25 -1.17% 5.84%

FTSE 100 7,750.34 1.18% 0.22%

DAX Index 18,021.27 1.16% 7.58%

Nikkei Average 38,707.64 -2.47% 15.67%

Straits Times 3,172.96 0.82% -2.08%

Source: Refinitiv Value as on Mar 15, 2024

U.S.

• U.S. equity market fell following the

release of the U.S. consumer price index

climbed by 0.4% in Feb 2024 after rising

by 0.3% in Jan 2024, which dampened

anticipation of an early U.S. Federal

Reserve rate decrease. Further, the

market sentiment hit after the Labor

Department published a report that

indicated producer prices rose in Feb

2024 by far more than anticipated.

Europe

• European equity markets rose as investors responded favorably to data indicating

improved economic growth in the U.K. such as U.K. gross domestic product posted an

expansion of 0.2% in Jan 2024, reversing a 0.1% fall in Dec 2023. Furthermore, the market

rose because of several favorable earnings announcements.

Asia

• Asian equity markets mostly fell on uncertainty over the U.S. Fed interest rate easing, and

a lack of big-ticket stimulus from top metals consumer China. The Japanese market fell as

the Bank of Japan meeting was approaching, and it was widely anticipated that the

central bank would terminate its negative interest rate and yield curve control policies.

Global Equity Markets

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4.00

4.05

4.10

4.15

4.20

4.25

4.30

4.35

11-Mar 12-Mar 13-Mar 14-Mar 15-Mar

Yield in %

US 10-Year Treasury Yield Movement

Source: Refinitiv

• Yields on the 10-year U.S. Treasury rose

by 21 bps to close at 4.30% from the

previous week’s close of 4.09%.

• U.S. Treasury prices fell after consumer

price inflation in Feb 2024 was

marginally higher than forecast by

experts, which sparked worries that if

price pressures continue to be high, the

U.S. Federal Reserve might not be able

to lower interest rates as soon as

investors had anticipated.

• Further, prices fell as a mixed bag of

data indicated the U.S. economy

remained stable, suggestive of a

potential reduction in the amount of

rate cuts the U.S. Federal Reserve plans

to do this year or an extension of its

higher interest rate policy.

Global Debt (U.S.)

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9.00

9.50

10.00

10.50

11.00

11.50

15-Feb-24 2-Mar-24

Global Commodity Movement

Gold Spot ($/Oz) Silver Spot ($/Oz) Brent ($/bbl)

Global Commodity Prices

Rebased to 10

Source: Refinitiv

Performance of various commodities

Commodities

Last Closing* 1-Week Ago

Brent Crude($/Barrel)

86.34 85.86

Gold ($/Oz)

2,155.54 2,177.51

Gold (Rs/10 gm)

65,365 65,007

Silver ($/Oz)

25.16 24.31

Silver (Rs/Kg)

73,820 72,170

Source: Refinitiv *Value as on Mar 15, 2024

Gold

• Gold prices fell as the U.S. dollar traded

higher following a higher-than-expected

increase U.S. producer pricing index (PPI)

and strong inflation data reported from

the U.S. in the month of Feb 2024., which

dampened anticipation of an early U.S.

Federal Reserve rate decrease.

Brent Crude

• Brent crude oil prices fell as investors

evaluated the most recent U.S. inflation

data and ongoing concerns regarding

China's demand prospects. However, losses

were restricted after the International

Energy Agency (IEA) raised upward its

global demand growth forecast.

Baltic Dry Index

• The index rose over the week due to

improved capesize and panamax activities.

Commodities Market

15-Mar-24

0.56%

-1.01%

3.52%

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9.80

9.85

9.90

9.95

10.00

10.05

10.10

10.15

10.20

10.25

15-Feb-24 1-Mar-24

USD GBP Euro JPY

Source: Refinitiv

Currency Prices ( in terms of INR)

Rebased to 10

Currency Movement

Movement of Rupee vs Other Currencies

Currency

Last Closing* 1-Wk Ago

US Dollar

82.89 82.78

Pound Sterling

105.59 105.41

EURO

90.17 90.23

100 Yen

55.90 55.70

Source: Refinitiv Figures in INR , *

Value as on Mar 15, 2024

Rupee

• The Indian rupee in the spot trade fell against

the U.S. dollar due to strong greenback

demand. Further, prices fell due to decline in

domestic equities.

Euro

• Euro fell against the greenback after the U.S.

strong consumer price index data in the month

of Feb 2024, which reduced chances of the U.S.

interest rate cut this year.

Pound

• Pound fell against the U.S. dollar following a

mixed batch of data that indicated the U.S.

economy remained stable, indicating that the

U.S. Fed might cut back on the number of rate

cuts.

• Yen fell against the U.S. dollar after a mixed bag

of data showing the U.S. economy remained

steady.

Currencies Markets

15-Mar-24

0.14%

0.36%

-0.07%

0.17%

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The Week that was…

Mar to 15

Mar

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The Week that was (Mar 11 – Mar 15)

Date Events

Present

Value

Monday,

March 11, 2024

• U.S. 6-Month Bill Auction 5.10% 5.105%

• Japan Producer Price Index (YoY)(Feb) 0.60% 0.20%

Tuesday,

March 12, 2024

• India Industrial Production (YoY) (Jan) 3.80% 4.20%

• India Inflation Rate (YoY) (Feb) 5.09% 5.10%

• Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)(Feb) 2.70% 2.70%

• U.K. Claimant Count Change(Feb) 16.8K 3.1K

• U.S. Consumer Price Index (MoM)(Feb) 0.40% 0.30%

Wednesday,

March 13, 2024

• U.K. Industrial Production (MoM)(Jan) -0.20% 0.60%

• U.K. Gross Domestic Product (MoM)(Jan) 0.20% -0.10%

• Eurozone Industrial Production s.a. (MoM)(Jan) -3.20% 1.60%

Thursday,

March 14, 2024

• India WPI Food Index (YoY) (Feb) 4.09% 3.79%

• U.S. Retail Sales (MoM)(Feb) 0.60% -1.10%

• U.S. Producer Price Index (MoM)(Feb) 0.60% 0.30%

• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims(Mar 8) 209K 210K

Friday,

March 15, 2024

• U.K. Consumer Inflation Expectations 3% 3.30%

• U.S. Industrial Production (MoM)(Feb) 0.10% -0.50%

• U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index(Mar) PREL 76.5 76.9

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The Week Ahead

Mar to 22

Mar

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The Week Ahead

Day Event

Monday,

Mar 18, 2024

• China Retail Sales (YoY)(Feb)

• China Industrial Production (YoY)(Feb)

• Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM)(Feb)

Tuesday,

Mar 19, 2024

• Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision

• U.S. Housing Starts (MoM)(Feb)

• U.S. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock (Mar 15)

Wednesday,

Mar 20, 2024

• Peoples’s Bank of China Interest Rate Decision

• U.K. Consumer Price Index (MoM)(Feb)

• U.K. Retail Price Index (MoM)(Feb)

• Eurozone Consumer Confidence (Mar) PREL

• U.S. Fed Monetary Policy Statement

Thursday,

Mar 21, 2024

• Germany HCOB Composite PMI(Mar) PREL

• Eurozone HCOB Composite PMI(Mar) PREL

• Germany IFO – Current Assessment (Mar)

• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims(Mar 15)

Friday,

Mar 22, 2024

• U.K. Retail Sales (MoM)(Feb)

• U.S. S&P Global Services PMI(Mar) PREL

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The information herein is meant only for general reading purposes and contains all factual and statistical information pertaining to Industry and

markets which have been obtained from independent third party sources and which are deemed to be reliable. The information provided cannot be

considered as guidelines, recommendations or as a professional guide for the readers. It may be noted that since Nippon Life India Asset

Management Limited (NAM India) has not independently verified the accuracy or authenticity of such information or data, or for that matter the

reasonableness of the assumptions upon which such data and information has been processed or arrive data; NAM India does not in any manner

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due care has been taken to ensure that the facts are accurate and opinions given are fair and reasonable, to the extent possible. This information is

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