News You Can Use of 01 November 2024

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NEWS U CAN USE

Nov 01, 2024

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The Week that was…

Oct to 01

Nov

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Indian Economy

• According to the Ministry of Commerce & Industry, the combined Index of Eight Core

Industries increased by 2.0% YoY in Sep 2024 as compared to 9.5% growth in Sep 2023.

The production of the Eight Core Industries remained mixed in Sep 2024 over the

corresponding month of last year, with cement witnessed the highest rate of growth with

7.1% followed by Refinery products with 5.8% growth, while Crude oil fell the most by

3.9%.

• Government data showed that India’s fiscal deficit for the period from Apr to Sep of FY25

stood at Rs. 4.75 lakh crore or 29.4% of the Budget Estimates (BE) of the current fiscal.

India’s fiscal deficit was at 39.3% of the BE in the corresponding period of the previous

fiscal year. Total expenditure stood at Rs. 21.1 lakh crore or 43.8% of the BE as compared

to 47.1% of the BE in the corresponding period of the previous fiscal year.

• The RBI enhanced domestic gold reserves by 102 metric tonnes between Apr and Sep

2024, raising the total to 510.46 metric tonnes. As geopolitical tensions rise, India has

been shifting gold from the UK to domestic vaults, marking one of the largest movements

since 1991.

• According to the Asian Development Bank’s ‘Asia-Pacific Climate Report’, climate change

under a high-end emissions scenario could lead to a 16.9% loss in GDP by 2070 across the

Asia and Pacific region, with India projected to suffer a 24.7% GDP. The report stated that

rising sea levels and decreasing labour productivity would drive the most significant losses,

with lower-income and fragile economies being hit the hardest.

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Domestic Equity Market Indices

Indices

01-Nov-24 1 Week Return YTD Return

BSE Sensex

79,724.12 0.41% 10.36%

Nifty 50

24,304.35 0.51% 11.84%

BSE Mid

-Cap 46,284.43 1.83% 25.64%

BSE Small

-Cap 55,622.60 6.28% 30.34%

Source: Refinitiv

Values as on Nov 01, 2024

• Domestic equity markets rose after

witnessing fall for consecutive four

weeks as key benchmark indices BSE

Sensex and Nifty 50 rose 0.41% and

0.51%, respectively. The rally was

broad-based as the mid-cap segment

and the small-cap segment both closed

the week in green.

• Domestic equity markets experienced

gains during the week as concerns

regarding tensions in the Middle East

subsided. A notable drop in global

crude oil prices on international

markets has positively influenced

market sentiment. Furthermore, gains

were extended on Muhurat trading

session of Samvat 2081 due to buying

across the sectors. However, persistent

selling by foreign portfolio investors in

domestic equity markets restricted the

gains.

Ratios

BSE Sensex

Nifty 50 BSE Mid Cap

BSE Small

Cap

P/E

23.13 22.68 40.43 33.62

P/B

4.04 3.64 4.70 3.85

Dividend Yield

1.18 1.26 0.71 0.58

Source: NSE, BSE

Values as on Nov 01, 2024

Indian Equity Market

NSE Advance/Decline Ratio

Date

Advances Declines Advance/Decline Ratio

28-Oct-24 1,866 942 1.98

29-Oct-24 1,664 1,089 1.53

30-Oct-24 2,062 685 3.01

31-Oct-24 1,730 995 1.74

01-Nov-24 2,289 381 6.01

Source: NSE

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Sectoral Indices

Indices

Last Returns (in %)

Closing 1-Wk 1-Mth

BSE Auto

54,157.46 0.06% -11.56%

BSE Bankex

58,887.06 1.58% -2.02%

BSE CD

61,150.63 -0.05% -9.99%

BSE CG

69,577.84 4.74% -4.79%

BSE FMCG

21,775.78 1.76% -8.30%

BSE HC

44,097.59 2.95% -0.35%

BSE IT

40,514.00 -2.91% -5.37%

BSE Metal

31,494.20 2.04% -9.06%

BSE Oil & Gas

27,707.56 0.73% -12.35%

Source:BSE

Values as on Nov 01, 2024

• On the BSE sectoral front, BSE capital goods

rose 4.74% following a rebound in core sector

data of Sep 2024 and government spending.

• BSE IT fell 2.91% as significant selling pressure

was witnessed among the information

technology stocks after a major global IT

company reduced guidance.

Indian Derivatives Market Review

• Nifty Nov 2024 Futures stood at 24,383.05, a premium of 78.70 points above the spot

closing of 24,304.35.

• The total turnover on NSE’s Futures and Options segment for the week stood at Rs.

1,679.42 lakh crore as against Rs. 1,958.26 lakh crore for the week to Oct 25.

• The Put-Call ratio stood at 0.88 compared with the previous week’s close of 0.99.

• The Nifty Put-Call ratio stood at 0.80 compared with the previous week’s close of 0.87.

Indian Equity Market (contd.)

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6.80

6.82

6.84

6.86

6.88

28-Oct 29-Oct 30-Oct 31-Oct

Yield in %

10 -Yr Benchmark Bond ( % )

Source: CCIL

Debt Indicators

(%)

Current

Value

1-Wk

Ago

1-Mth

Ago

6-Mth

Ago

Call Rate

6.44 6.61 6.48 6.67

91 Day T-Bill

6.53 6.51 6.48 7.01

07.06% 2028, (5 Yr GOI)

6.75 6.67 6.67 7.19

07.10% 2034, (10 Yr GOI)

6.85 6.85 6.73 7.15

Source: Refinitiv Values as on Oct 31, 2024

• Bond yields remained steady over the

week as the increase in domestic bond

yields following a rise in U.S. Treasury

yields was offset by the active

participation of value investors.

• Yield on the 10-year benchmark paper

(7.10% GS 2034) was unchanged to close

at 6.85% from the previous week’s close.

• Data from Reserve Bank of India showed

that India's foreign exchange reserves

decreased to $684.81 billion for the

week ended Oct 25, 2024 compared with

$688.27 billion a week earlier.

Domestic Debt Market

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-6

-4

-2

6.20

6.40

6.60

6.80

7.00

7.20

3 Mths 6 Mths 1 Yr 5 Yrs 10 Yrs 20 Yrs 30 Yrs

India Yield Curve Shift (%) (W-o-W)

Change in bps 31-Oct-24 25-Oct-24

Yield in %

Change in bps

Source: Refinitiv

Maturity

G-Sec Yield

(%)

Corporate Yield

(%)

Spread

bps

1 Year 6.72 7.61 89

3 Year 6.86 7.46 60

5 Year 6.89 7.46 57

10 Year 6.96 7.42 46

Source: Refinitiv

Values as on Oct 31, 2024

• Yields on gilt were unchanged or moved by 1 bps

across the maturities, barring 2, 11 & 19 year papers

that fell by 2 or 4 bps.

• Corporate bond yields fell up to 8 bps across the

curve, barring 1 year paper that increased by 1 bps.

• Difference in spread between AAA corporate bond

and gilt contracted up to 8 bps across the segments,

barring 2 year paper that expanded by 3 bps, while

1 & 6 year papers remained steady.

Domestic Debt Market (Spread Analysis)

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• According to a draft circular published by the IRDAI, the insurance regulator has identified

four types of frauds in the insurance industry – Internal fraud, distribution fraud,

policyholder fraud or claims fraud and external fraud. As part of the fraud detection

mechanism, IRDAI has proposed that insurance companies should do background checks for

any adverse records of their agents and intermediaries to curb instances of fraud. IRDAI has

also proposed that insurers should put in place a mechanism to analyse customer

complaints against distribution channels.

• SEBI has proposed introducing a schedule for deployment of funds under NFO. Under the

new proposal, fund houses will be given a maximum of 30 days to deploy the funds raised

during the NFO period. However, in the event of a delay, fund houses can request an

extension of 30 days from their investment committee, providing reasons. The Investment

Committee has the right to reject such an application.

• According to a consultation paper issued by SEBI, the capital market regulator has proposed

the fund houses will be able to file final SID after 5 working days of uploading of the draft

SID made available on SEBI website for public comment, as SEBI feels that the reduced

waiting period will ensure that the fund houses get the first move advantage. Currently,

fund houses can launch a scheme only after completion of 21 working days from the date of

uploading of SID on SEBI website.

Regulatory Updates in India

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• SEBI has directed corporate Registered Investment Advisers (RIAs) to file a compliance

certificate declaring that they maintain client-level segregation i.e. advisory clients at a

family level cannot work with the distribution wing of the same company. Such a

declaration must be approved by any auditor and submitted within 6 months of the end of

the financial year.

• The income tax department has announced the tolerance range for differences between

arm's length and transfer pricing for certain domestic and international transactions for

Assessment Year 2024–2025. Central Board of Direct Taxes has retained the range at the

same level as last year's – 1% for ‘wholesale trading’ and 3% for all other taxpayers.

• The Indian government for the first time, has entered into contract farming deals with

farmers in states including Tamil Nadu, Bihar, Jharkhand and Gujarat to grow tur and

masur pulses on 1,500 hectares of farmland. The initiative aims to increase pulse

production and procurement for buffer stocks in light of rising inflation.

Regulatory Updates in India (contd..)

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• According to the Commerce Department, U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE)

price index rose by 0.2% in Sep 2024 after inching up by 0.1% in Aug 2024. The modest

increase matched economists' estimates. The annual rate of growth of the PCE price index

slowed to 2.1% in Sep 2024 from 2.3% in Aug 2024, which was also in line with

expectations.

• According to the Commerce Department, U.S. gross domestic product shot up by 2.8% in

the third quarter of 2024 after surging by 3.0% in the second quarter of 2024. Economists

had expected another 3.0% jump. The unexpected slowdown in the pace of GDP growth

primarily reflected a downturn in private inventory investment and a larger decrease in

residential fixed investment.

• According to Eurostat, eurozone’s harmonized index of consumer prices posted an annual

growth of 2.0% in Oct 204. Inflation was forecast to rise to 1.9% from 1.7% in Sep 2024.

Core inflation, which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, remained unchanged at

2.7% in Oct 2024. The rate was seen at 2.6%.

• The Bank of Japan maintained its key interest rate at the same level, as anticipated, on

31st Oct, 2024, while adopting a cautious stance due to concerns regarding political

instability and the upcoming U.S. presidential election, which have raised apprehensions

about the economic outlook. In a unanimous vote, the Policy Board decided to maintain

the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.25%. This was the highest

since late 2008.

Global News/Economy

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Global Indices

Indices

01-Nov-24

1-Week

Return

YTD

Return

Russell 3000 2,973.79 -1.51% 23.76%

Nasdaq 100 20,033.14 -1.57% 19.06%

FTSE 100 8,177.15 -0.87% 5.74%

DAX Index 19,254.97 -1.07% 14.94%

Nikkei Average 38,053.67 0.37% 13.71%

Straits Times 3,555.43 -1.06% 9.73%

Source: Refinitiv Value as on Nov 01, 2024

U.S.

• U.S. equity markets fell amid a negative

reaction to earnings news from major

tech giants. Further, the market fell as a

slightly faster than expected increase in

U.S. core prices for the month of Sep

2024 may have contributed to growing

apprehensions that the U.S. Federal

Reserve will reduce interest rates at a

slower pace than desired.

Europe

• European equity markets fell as investors were responding to a variety of economic

indicators from the region, the U.K. budget, and updates on corporate earnings, while also

paying close attention to U.S. economic data and monitoring geopolitical developments.

Asia

• Asian equity markets mostly fell as a sense of caution permeated various regions in Asia,

influenced by the mixed financial results from U.S. technology firms, ongoing tensions in

the Middle East, and the uncertainty surrounding the upcoming U.S. presidential elections

next week. However, the Japanese market rose following the recent elections, in which

the ruling party lost its majority in the lower house of Parliament.

Global Equity Markets

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4.20

4.25

4.30

4.35

4.40

28-Oct 29-Oct 30-Oct 31-Oct 1-Nov

Yield in %

US 10-Year Treasury Yield Movement

Source: Refinitiv

• Yields on the 10-year U.S. Treasury rose

by 13 bps to close at 4.36% from the

previous week’s close of 4.23%.

• U.S. Treasury prices fell as some

investors are hesitant to purchase

bonds ahead of the U.S. presidential

election taking place on 5th Nov, 2024.

• Meanwhile, investors were waiting for

the key U.S. economic data for more

guidance regarding the interest

trajectory path.

Global Debt (U.S.)

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8.50

9.00

9.50

10.00

10.50

11.00

11.50

1-Oct-24 17-Oct-24

Global Commodity Movement

Gold Spot ($/Oz) Silver Spot ($/Oz) Brent ($/bbl)

Global Commodity Prices

Rebased to 10

Source: Refinitiv

Performance of various commodities

Commodities

Last Closing* 1-Week Ago

Brent Crude($/Barrel)

73.86 76.67

Gold ($/Oz)

2,735.16 2,747.69

Gold (Rs/10 gm)

[1]

79,181 77,622

Silver ($/Oz)

32.43 33.70

Silver (Rs/Kg)

[1]

96,548 95,128

Source: Refinitiv *Value as on Nov 01, 2024

;

[1]Value as on Oct 31, 2024

Gold

• Gold prices (in $/Oz) fell as Israel avoided

attacking Iran's oil facilities. However,

losses were restricted as investors looked

ahead to a slew of key economic data for

more clarity about the U.S. Federal

Reserve's rate decision.

Brent Crude

• Brent crude oil prices fell amid concerns

that crude supplies will far exceed near

term demand. Further, prices fell as

concerns about supply disruptions faded

after Israel avoided hitting Iranian oil

facilities in the last week and targeted only

military and industrial targets.

Baltic Dry Index

• The index fell over the week due to

sluggish capesize and panamax activities.

Commodities Market

01-Nov-24

-3.67%

-0.46%

-3.78%

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9.20

9.40

9.60

9.80

10.00

10.20

1-Oct-24 17-Oct-24

USD GBP Euro JPY

Source: Refinitiv

Currency Prices ( in terms of INR)

Rebased to 10

Currency Movement

Movement of Rupee vs Other Currencies

Currency

Last Closing* 1-Wk Ago

US Dollar

84.09 84.08

Pound Sterling

108.95 108.98

EURO

91.25 90.96

100 Yen

55.03 55.34

Source: Refinitiv Figures in INR , *Value as on Oct

31, 2024

Rupee

• The Indian rupee in the spot trade rose against

the U.S. dollar despite greenback demand and

outflow from domestic equities ahead of the

U.S. presidential election.

Euro

• The euro rose against the greenback following

a stronger-than-anticipated growth report for

the eurozone in the third quarter of 2024,

expectations for rate cuts by the European

Central Bank have been moderated.

Pound

• Pound fell slightly against the U.S. dollar ahead

of the U.S. presidential election.

• Yen fell slightly against the U.S. dollar despite

remarks from the BoJ Governor indicated that

currency markets have significantly influenced

the economy, suggesting the possibility of

imminent interest rate increases.

Currencies Markets

31-Oct-24

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The Week that was…

Oct to 01

Nov

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The Week that was (Oct 28 – Nov 01)

Date Events

Present

Value

Monday,

October 28, 2024

• Japan Unemployment Rate (Sep) 2.40% 2.50%

• U.S. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index (Oct) -3.00 -9.00

Tuesday,

October 29, 2024

• Germany Consumer Confidence Survey (Nov) -18.30 -21.00

• U.S. JOLTS Job Openings (Sep) 7.443M 7.861M

• U.S. Housing Price Index (MoM) (Aug) 0.30% 0.20%

Wednesday,

October 30, 2024

• Japan Consumer Confidence Index (Oct) 36.20 36.90

• U.S. Gross Domestic Product Annualized (Q3) Prel 2.80% 3.00%

• Eurozone Consumer Confidence (Oct) -12.50 -12.50

• Eurozone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) (Q3) Prel 0.90% 0.60%

• Germany Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Oct) Prel 0.40% 0.00%

• Japan Large Retailer Sales (Sep) 2.00% 5.00%

Thursday,

October 31, 2024

• China NBS Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 50.10 49.80

• Bank of Japan (BoJ) Interest Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25%

• Germany Retail Sales (YoY) (Sep) 3.80% 2.10%

• Eurozone Unemployment Rate (Sep) 6.30% 6.30%

• U.S. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM) (Sep) 0.30% 0.2%

• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 25) 216K 228K

Friday,

November 1, 2024

• China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 50.30 49.30

• U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct) 12K 223K

• U.S. Unemployment Rate (Oct) 4.10% 4.10%

• U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 46.50 47.20

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The Week Ahead

Nov to 08

Nov

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The Week Ahead

Day Event

Monday,

Nov 04, 2024

• India HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final (Oct)

• Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Oct)

• Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Oct)

Tuesday,

Nov 05, 2024

• China Caixin Services PMI (Oct)

• U.S. S&P Global Composite PMI (Oct)

• U.S. ISM Services PMI (Oct)

• Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Wednesday,

Nov 06, 2024

• India HSBC Services PMI Final (Oct)

• Eurozone HCOB Composite PMI (Oct)

• Eurozone Producer Price Index (MoM) (Sep)

Thursday,

Nov 07, 2024

• China Exports (YoY) (Oct)

• Germany Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep)

• Bank of England Interest Rate Decision

• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 1)

• U.S. Fed Interest Rate Decision

Friday,

Nov 08, 2024

• Japan Leading Economic Index (Sep) Prel

• U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Nov) Prel

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The information herein is meant only for general reading purposes and contains all factual and statistical information pertaining to Industry and

markets which have been obtained from independent third party sources and which are deemed to be reliable. The information provided cannot be

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