News You Can Use of 04 October 2024

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NEWS U CAN USE

Oct 04, 2024

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The Week that was…

Sep to 04

Oct

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Indian Economy

• India’s current account deficit (CAD) widened marginally to US$ 9.7 billion (1.1% of GDP) in

Q1 FY25 from US$ 8.9 billion (1.0% of GDP) in Q1 FY24 and against a surplus of US$ 4.6

billion (0.5% of GDP) in Q4 FY24. The widening of CAD on a YoY basis was primarily due to

a rise in merchandise trade deficit to US$ 65.1 billion in Q1 FY25 from US$ 56.7 billion in

Q1 FY24.

• Government data showed that India’s fiscal deficit for the period from Apr to Aug of FY25

stood at Rs. 4.35 lakh crore or 27% of the Budget Estimates (BE) of the current fiscal.

India’s fiscal deficit was at 36% of the BE in the corresponding period of the previous fiscal

year. Total expenditure stood at Rs. 16.5 lakh crore or 34.3% of the BE as compared to

37.1% of the BE in the corresponding period of the previous fiscal year.

• According to the Ministry of Commerce & Industry, the combined Index of Eight Core

Industries contracted by 1.8% YoY in Aug 2024 as compared to 13.4% growth in Aug 2023.

The production of most of the Eight Core Industries declined in Aug 2024 over the

corresponding month of last year except steel and fertilizers. Steel and fertilizers

experienced positive growth rates of 4.5% and 3.2%, respectively, in Aug 2024.

• The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index edged down slightly to 56.5 in Sep 2024

compared to 57.5 in Aug 2024. The latest reading indicated growth decreased to 8 months

low in Sep 2024.

• Gross goods and services tax (GST) collections in Sep 2024 stood at Rs. 1,73,240 crore,

representing a 6.5% rise on a yearly basis.

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Domestic Equity Market Indices

Indices

04-Oct-24 1 Week Return YTD Return

BSE Sensex

81,688.45 -4.54% 13.08%

Nifty 50

25,014.60 -4.45% 15.11%

BSE Mid

-Cap 47,906.74 -3.20% 30.04%

BSE Small

-Cap 55,945.31 -2.01% 31.10%

Source: Refinitiv

Values as on Oct 04, 2024

• Domestic equity markets fell after

witnessing rise for three consecutive

weeks as key benchmark indices BSE

Sensex and Nifty 50 fell 4.54% and

4.45%, respectively. The fall was broad-

based as the mid-cap segment and the

small-cap segment closed the week in

red.

• Domestic equity markets fell due to

broad-based sell-off across the sectors

as fears of a full-fledged war between

Iran and Israel dented investors'

appetite for riskier assets on

expectations of a significant retaliatory

attack by Israel following Iran's missile

strikes. Losses were extended

following a spike in global crude oil

prices on supply uncertainty due to

geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Ratios

BSE Sensex

Nifty 50 BSE Mid Cap

BSE Small

Cap

P/E

24.22 23.52 42.36 34.07

P/B

4.18 3.75 4.96 3.84

Dividend Yield

1.10 1.20 0.68 0.57

Source: NSE, BSE

Values as on Oct 04, 2024

Indian Equity Market

NSE Advance/Decline Ratio

Date

Advances Declines Advance/Decline Ratio

30-Sep-24 1,088 1,701 0.64

01-Oct-24 1,596 1,151 1.39

03-Oct-24 587 2,211 0.27

04-Oct-24 959 1,831 0.52

Source: NSE

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Sectoral Indices

Indices

Last Returns (in %)

Closing 1-Wk 1-Mth

BSE Auto

58,539.51 -5.94% -0.17%

BSE Bankex

58,394.32 -4.51% 0.02%

BSE CD

65,858.28 -3.07% 3.11%

BSE CG

70,301.10 -4.62% -3.46%

BSE FMCG

23,012.50 -3.68% -1.15%

BSE HC

43,564.19 -1.97% 0.28%

BSE IT

42,360.57 -1.01% -1.75%

BSE Metal

34,277.62 0.09% 8.71%

BSE Oil & Gas

30,509.05 -4.35% -6.17%

Source:BSE

Values as on Oct 04, 2024

• On the BSE sectoral front, BSE Realty fell 7.92%

following a decrease in registrations of housing

units in Mumbai in Sep 2024. Data showed that

the number of housing units registered in

Mumbai in Sep 2024 dropped 15% YoY to 9,111

units, as buyers delayed purchases due to the

inauspicious Shradh period and expectations of

a stamp duty reduction before the state

elections.

• BSE AUTO declined 5.94% following the sales

data of Sep 2024, which pointed out that the

start of the festive season for automobile

companies has been weaker.

Indian Derivatives Market Review

• Nifty Oct 2024 Futures stood at 25,173.85, a premium of 159.25 points above the spot

closing of 25,014.60.

• The total turnover on NSE’s Futures and Options segment for the week stood at Rs.

1,686.37 lakh crore as against Rs. 1,887.38 lakh crore for the week to Sep 27.

• The Put-Call ratio stood at 0.88 compared with the previous week’s close of 0.96.

• The Nifty Put-Call ratio stood at 0.69 compared with the previous week’s close of 1.16.

Indian Equity Market (contd.)

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6.65

6.70

6.75

6.80

6.85

30-Sep 1-Oct 3-Oct 4-Oct

Yield in %

10 -Yr Benchmark Bond ( % )

Source: CCIL

Debt Indicators

(%)

Current

Value

1-Wk

Ago

1-Mth

Ago

6-Mth

Ago

Call Rate

6.45 6.53 6.46 6.44

91 Day T-Bill

6.48 6.54 6.65 6.85

07.06% 2028, (5 Yr GOI)

6.71 6.67 6.78 7.07

07.10% 2034, (10 Yr GOI)

6.83 6.76 6.86 7.09

Source: Refinitiv Values as on Oct 04, 2024

• Bond yields surged tracking the rise in

U.S. Treasury yields and crude oil prices

over an escalating conflict in the Middle

East following Iran's missile strikes on

Israel. However, losses were limited on

expectation of a policy easing in the

upcoming RBI monetary policy,

scheduled between Oct 7 to 9, 2024.

• Yield on the 10-year benchmark paper

(7.10% GS 2034) rose by 7 bps to close at

6.83% from the previous week’s close of

6.76%.

• Data from Reserve Bank of India showed

that India's foreign exchange reserves

increased to $704.89 billion for the week

ended Sep 27, 2024 compared with

$692.30 billion a week earlier.

Domestic Debt Market

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-10

-5

6.20

6.40

6.60

6.80

7.00

7.20

3 Mths 6 Mths 1 Yr 5 Yrs 10 Yrs 20 Yrs 30 Yrs

India Yield Curve Shift (%) (W-o-W)

Change in bps 04-Oct-24 27-Sep-24

Yield in %

Change in bps

Source: Refinitiv

Maturity

G-Sec Yield

(%)

Corporate Yield

(%)

Spread

bps

1 Year 6.70 7.49 79

3 Year 6.81 7.4 59

5 Year 6.85 7.42 57

10 Year 6.95 7.46 51

Source: Refinitiv

Values as on Oct 04, 2024

• Yields on gilt rose up to 9 bps across the maturities,

barring 1 year paper that fell by 5 bps, while 2 year

paper was unchanged.

• Corporate bond yields increased between 5 to 8 bps

across the curve, barring 1 year paper that fell by 4

bps, while 2 year paper was unchanged.

• Difference in spread between AAA corporate bond

and gilt remained steady or moved by 1 bps across

the segments, barring 3 year that expanded by 4

bps.

Domestic Debt Market (Spread Analysis)

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• The RBI has increased its scrutiny of gold loans following a notable increase in these loans

from banks and non-banking finance companies. The central bank's intervention comes amid

concerns over potential bad debts within the sector, driven by a staggering 41% YoY

increase in gold loans as of Aug 2024. The total amount of gold loans held by banks as of the

end of Aug 2024 was Rs. 1.4 lakh crore, indicating a growing trend of using gold as security

for loans.

• SEBI has directed in a consultation paper that AMCs should provide half-yearly financial

disclosures for direct plans, like those for regular plans. Currently, AMCs share information

about the expense ratio, returns, and yields of regular plans. SEBI noted that since the

expenses, expense ratios, returns, and yields differ between direct and regular plans, it is

recommended that disclosures for both types be presented in a standardized format. SEBI

has instructed the AMFI to create a standardized format for these disclosures. The capital

market regulator believes this will improve transparency.

• IRDAI has introduced several changes to make health insurance customer friendly, effective

from Oct 01, 2024. These changes include reduced in waiting period for pre-existing

conditions, no maximum age limit for buying health insurance, wide coverage, no claim

denials after 5 years, meaningful discounts, anytime refund policy, claims review committee

and simplified claim settlement. Overall, these changes make health insurances more

accessible and affordable.

Regulatory Updates in India

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• SEBI has approved the implementation of the MF Lite framework specifically designed for

passively managed schemes. This framework simplifies the eligibility criteria for sponsors

and lowers compliance obligations. Current AMCs are permitted to manage active and

passive schemes independently. The newly established regulations are intended to attract

new participants, improve market liquidity, and promote innovation within the mutual

fund industry.

• SEBI has announced that it will implement uniform standards for nomination facilities and

consistent rules for nominations across demat accounts and MF investments. The number

of allowed nominees will increase from three to ten. Under the new regulations, nominees

can act for investors who are unable to do so, with specific risk management measures in

place. Nominees will now need to provide unique identifiers such as PAN, Passport

number, or Aadhar, replacing the previous requirement for KYC documents.

• India has initiated an anti-dumping investigation regarding the import of Cold-Rolled Non-

oriented Electrical Steel from China. This decision came after complaints from steel

manufacturers in South Korea and Taiwan. The investigation will cover the period from Apr

2023 to Mar 2024. Preliminary results indicate that these dumped imports are adversely

affecting the domestic industry.

Regulatory Updates in India (contd..)

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• According to the Labor Department, U.S. non-farm payroll employment jumped by 254,000

jobs in Sep 2024 after climbing by an upwardly revised 159,000 jobs in Aug 2024.

Economists had expected employment to rise by 140,000 jobs compared to the addition of

142,000 jobs originally reported for the previous month.

• According to Institute for Supply Management, U.S. services PMI shot up to 54.9 in Sep

2024 from 51.5 in Aug 2024, with a reading above 50 indicating growth. Economists had

expected the index to inch up to 51.7.

• According to the Office for National Statistics, U.K. gross domestic product advanced 0.5%

in the second quarter of 2024 from the first quarter of 2024, revised down from the first

estimate of 0.6%. Data showed that overall growth in the second quarter of 2024 was

driven by a 0.6% increase in service output, but this was weaker than the initial estimate of

0.8%.

• According to a flash data from Eurostat, eurozone’s harmonized index of consumer prices

posted an annual increase of 1.8% in Sep 2024 compared to a 2.2% rise in Aug 2024.

Inflation fell below 2% for the first time since Jun 2021. Economists had forecast inflation

to moderate to 1.9%.

• According to the survey, China’s manufacturing sector fell into contraction territory in Sep

2024, with a manufacturing PMI score of 49.3. That's down from 50.4 in Aug 2024, and it

slips beneath the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

Global News/Economy

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Global Indices

Indices

04-Oct-24

1-Week

Return

YTD

Return

Russell 3000 2,958.52 0.29% 23.13%

Nasdaq 100 20,035.02 0.13% 19.07%

FTSE 100 8,280.63 -0.48% 7.08%

DAX Index 19,120.93 -1.81% 14.14%

Nikkei Average 38,635.62 -3.00% 15.45%

Straits Times 3,589.13 0.44% 10.77%

Source: Refinitiv Value as on Oct 04, 2024

U.S.

• U.S. equity markets rose as positive U.S.

non-farm payroll data for the month of

Sep 2024 alleviated worries regarding

tensions in the Middle East, encouraging

investors to engage in vigorous

purchasing across multiple sectors. The

unexpectedly robust job growth

alleviated worries regarding the

economic outlook.

Europe

• European equity markets fell as increasing tensions in the Middle East, coupled with

uncertainty regarding China's economic growth prospects despite recent stimulus efforts,

have negatively impacted investor sentiment. However, losses were restricted as investors

expressed enthusiasm following positive U.S. nonfarm payrolls figures for the month of

Sep, 2024.

Asia

• Asian equity markets closed on a mixed note. Japanese market fell as concerns were raised

regarding the Bank of Japan's policy outlook to raise interest rates. Rising tensions in the

Middle East due to the conflict between Iran and Israel also weighed the sentiment.

Global Equity Markets

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3.60

3.70

3.80

3.90

4.00

30-Sep 1-Oct 2-Oct 3-Oct 4-Oct

Yield in %

US 10-Year Treasury Yield Movement

Source: Refinitiv

• Yields on the 10-year U.S. Treasury rose

by 23 bps to close at 3.98% from the

previous week’s close of 3.75%.

• U.S. Treasury prices fell after

unexpectedly robust U.S. nonfarm

payrolls' data for Sep 2024 diminished

the likelihood of significant interest rate

reductions during the U.S. Federal

Reserve's last two meetings of the year.

• Further, prices declined following an

unexpected increase of 143,000 jobs in

U.S. private payrolls for Se 2024, which

reduced the anticipation of interest rate

reductions by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Global Debt (U.S.)

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8.00

9.00

10.00

11.00

12.00

4-Sep-24 20-Sep-24

Global Commodity Movement

Gold Spot ($/Oz) Silver Spot ($/Oz) Brent ($/bbl)

Global Commodity Prices

Rebased to 10

Source: Refinitiv

Performance of various commodities

Commodities

Last Closing* 1-Week Ago

Brent Crude($/Barrel)

79.95 72.57

Gold ($/Oz)

2,652.25 2,657.97

Gold (Rs/10 gm)

75,694 75,340

Silver ($/Oz)

32.17 31.62

Silver (Rs/Kg)

92,053 90,951

Source: Refinitiv *Value as on Oct 04, 2024

Gold

• Gold prices fell as expectations diminished

for a 50-basis point interest rate reduction

by the U.S. Federal Reserve in Nov 2024,

following data that revealed a greater-

than-anticipated rise in U.S. non-farm

payroll employment for Sep 2024.

Brent Crude

• Brent crude oil prices rose on concerns that

a wider Middle East conflict could disrupt

global energy shipments. Further, prices

rose on worries about a possible attack on

Iran's oil facilities by Israel in retaliation for

the former's attack earlier in the week.

Baltic Dry Index

• The index fell over the week due to

sluggish capesize and panamax activities.

Commodities Market

04-Oct-24

10.17%

-0.22%

1.74%

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9.60

9.80

10.00

10.20

10.40

4-Sep-24 20-Sep-24

USD GBP Euro JPY

Source: Refinitiv

Currency Prices ( in terms of INR)

Rebased to 10

Currency Movement

Movement of Rupee vs Other Currencies

Currency

Last Closing* 1-Wk Ago

US Dollar

83.97 83.67

Pound Sterling

110.29 112.05

EURO

92.62 93.46

100 Yen

57.48 58.23

Source: Refinitiv Figures in INR , *Value as on

Oct 04, 2024

Rupee

• The Indian rupee in the spot trade fell against

the U.S. dollar due to greenback demand from

oil companies and local corporates. Further,

prices fell due to negative sentiment in the

domestic equity markets amid concerns over

escalating tension in the Middle East.

Euro

• The euro fell against the greenback as there is

growing anticipation that the European Central

Bank will lower interest rates during its meeting

in Oct 2024 as inflation continues to decline.

Pound

• Pound fell against the U.S. dollar as safe haven

demand increased on concerns about rising

Middle East tensions.

• Yen fell against the U.S. dollar as the U.S.

nonfarm payrolls data dampened the U.S. Fed

rate cut hopes at its upcoming policy meeting.

Currencies Markets

04-Oct-24

0.36%

-1.29%

-0.90%

-1.57%

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The Week that was…

Sep to 04

Oct

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The Week that was (Sep 30 – Oct 04)

Date Events

Present

Value

Monday,

September 30, 2024

• India Infrastructure Output (YoY) (Aug)

-1.80% 6.10%

• India Current Account

– Q1FY25 $-9.7B $5.7B

• China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Sep)

49.30 50.40

• U.K. Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Q2)

0.70% 0.90%

• Germany Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Sep) Prel

1.60% 1.90%

Tuesday,

October 01, 2024

• India HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final (Sep)

56.50 57.50

• Japan Unemployment Rate (Aug)

2.50% 2.70%

• Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Sep)

40.60 40.30

• Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) (Sep) Prel

-0.10% -0.10%

• U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep)

47.20 47.20

Wednesday,

October 02, 2024

• Eurozone Unemployment Rate (Aug)

6.40% 6.40%

• U.S. ADP Employment Change (Sep)

143K 103K

Thursday,

October 03, 2024

• Germany HCOB Services PMI (Sep)

50.60 50.60

• Eurozone HCOB Services PMI (Sep)

51.40 50.50

• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (Sep 27)

225K 219K

• U.S. S&P Global Composite PMI (Sep)

54.00 54.40

• U.S. ISM Services PMI (Sep)

54.90 51.50

Friday,

October 04, 2024

• India HSBC Services PMI Final (Sep)

57.70 60.90

• U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep)

254K 159K

• U.S. Unemployment Rate (Sep)

4.10% 4.20%

Mutual Fund Investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.

The Week Ahead

Oct to 11

Oct

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The Week Ahead

Day Event

Monday,

Oct 07, 2024

• Germany Factory Orders (YoY) (Aug)

• Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) (Aug)

• Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence (Oct)

Tuesday,

Oct 08, 2024

• Japan Current Account (Aug)

• Germany Industrial Production (YoY) (Aug)

• U.S. Goods and Services Trade Balance (Aug)

Wednesday,

Oct 09, 2024

• India RBI Interest Rate Decision

• Germany Trade Balance (Aug)

• U.S. FOMC Minutes

Thursday,

Oct 10, 2024

• U.S. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Sep)

• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 4)

• U.S. Monthly Budget Statement (Sep)

Friday,

Oct 11, 2024

• India Industrial Production (YoY) (Aug)

• Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) (Sep)

• U.K. Gross Domestic Product (MoM) (Aug)

• U.S. Producer Price Index (YoY) (Sep)

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The information herein is meant only for general reading purposes and contains all factual and statistical information pertaining to Industry and

markets which have been obtained from independent third party sources and which are deemed to be reliable. The information provided cannot be

considered as guidelines, recommendations or as a professional guide for the readers. It may be noted that since Nippon Life India Asset

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