News You Can Use of 25 October 2024

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NEWS U CAN USE

Oct 25, 2024

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The Week that was…

Oct to 25

Oct

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Indian Economy

• The International Monetary Fund has maintained India's growth forecast for FY25 at 7%.

As the economy recovers, the pandemic-related surge in demand is fading. The forecast

for FY26 is 6.5%.

• According to the labour ministry data, retail inflation for farm workers and rural labourers

increased to 6.36% and 6.39% YoY, respectively, in Sep 2024 from 5.96% and 6.08% in Aug

2024.

• According to the RBI's report, India's food inflation is projected to decline by the Q4 of

FY25 due to better kharif crop arrivals and promising rabi season prospects. Despite

potential weather risks, reservoir levels and adequate grain buffer stocks are favorable for

maintaining food security.

• According to media reports, major ports owned by the central government, registered a

6% growth in cargo in Sep 2024 at 65 million metric tonnes compared to a 9% growth in

the previous month. The growth was mainly driven by crude oil cargo shipments and an

increase in miscellaneous commodities.

• According to a study by an RBI economist, 60% of consumer expenditure is still cash based

as of Mar 2024. The share of digital payments more than doubled in three years from 14 to

19% in Mar 2021 to 40 to 48% in Mar 2024.

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Domestic Equity Market Indices

Indices

25-Oct-24 1 Week Return YTD Return

BSE Sensex

79,402.29 -2.24% 9.91%

Nifty 50

24,180.80 -2.71% 11.27%

BSE Mid

-Cap 45,452.83 -5.20% 23.38%

BSE Small

-Cap 52,335.66 -7.37% 22.64%

Source: Refinitiv

Values as on Oct 25, 2024

• Domestic equity markets fell for the

fourth consecutive week as key

benchmark indices BSE Sensex and

Nifty 50 fell 2.24% and 2.71%,

respectively. The fall was broad-based

as the mid-cap segment and the small-

cap segment both closed the week in

red, with significant losses.

• Domestic equity markets fell due to a

sell-off across the sectors as sentiment

was dented following muted earnings

reported by major domestic companies

for the second quarter so far. Losses

were extended due to persistent

selling by foreign portfolio investors in

domestic markets and subsequent

transfer of funds to China. Additionally,

a cautious undertone prevailed due to

anxiety over the impending U.S.

election and heightened tensions in the

Middle East.

Ratios

BSE Sensex

Nifty 50 BSE Mid Cap

BSE Small

Cap

P/E

23.14 22.56 38.71 31.79

P/B

4.02 3.62 4.61 3.62

Dividend Yield

1.15 1.18 0.73 0.61

Source: NSE, BSE

Values as on Oct 25, 2024

Indian Equity Market

NSE Advance/Decline Ratio

Date

Advances Declines Advance/Decline Ratio

21-Oct-24 666 2,130 0.31

22-Oct-24 281 2,535 0.11

23-Oct-24 1,557 1,196 1.30

24-Oct-24 966 1,771 0.55

25-Oct-24 419 2,364 0.18

Source: NSE

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Sectoral Indices

Indices

Last Returns (in %)

Closing 1-Wk 1-Mth

BSE Auto

54,123.75 -5.23% -10.66%

BSE

Bankex

57,971.49 -2.29% -5.54%

BSE CD

61,183.17 -5.61% -10.18%

BSE CG

66,429.40 -7.51% -10.31%

BSE FMCG

21,400.19 -3.90% -9.98%

BSE HC

42,834.16 -3.17% -3.02%

BSE IT

41,727.04 -1.57% -1.79%

BSE Metal

30,863.45 -6.87% -7.06%

BSE Oil & Gas

27,506.56 -7.34% -11.21%

Source:BSE

Values as on Oct 25, 2024

• On the BSE sectoral front, all the indices closed

the week in red amid sell-off across the sectors

on concerns over valuations due to disparity

between earnings and prices of the companies.

Among the sectors Capital goods followed by

Oil & Gas sector fell the most, while Information

technology sector witnessed the least fall.

Indian Derivatives Market Review

• Nifty Oct 2024 Futures stood at 24,192.75, a premium of 11.95 points above the spot

closing of 24,180.80.

• The total turnover on NSE’s Futures and Options segment for the week stood at Rs.

1,958.26 lakh crore as against Rs. 1,786.52 lakh crore for the week to Oct 18.

• The Put-Call ratio stood at 0.99 compared with the previous week’s close of 0.82.

• The Nifty Put-Call ratio stood at 0.87 compared with the previous week’s close of 0.93.

Indian Equity Market (contd.)

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6.80

6.82

6.84

6.86

21-Oct 22-Oct 23-Oct 24-Oct 25-Oct

Yield in %

10 -Yr Benchmark Bond ( % )

Source: CCIL

Debt Indicators

(%)

Current

Value

1-Wk

Ago

1-Mth

Ago

6-Mth

Ago

Call Rate

6.61 6.47 6.68 6.70

91 Day T-Bill

6.51 6.46 6.58 6.94

07.06% 2028, (5 Yr GOI)

6.67 6.71 6.68 7.22

07.10% 2034, (10 Yr GOI)

6.85 6.82 6.74 7.16

Source: Refinitiv Values as on Oct 25, 2024

• Bond yields rose as the possibility of a

rate cut in Dec 2024 reduced following

the comments by the RBI governor that a

rate cut at this point would be “very

premature”. Yields rose further on the

last trading session of the week as

domestic debt auctions added to supply.

However, losses were restricted

following the media reports that the

central government may reduce

borrowing via debt sale.

• Yield on the 10-year benchmark paper

(7.10% GS 2034) rose by 3 bps to close at

6.85% from the previous week’s close of

6.82%.

• Data from Reserve Bank of India showed

that India's foreign exchange reserves

decreased to $688.27 billion for the

week ended Oct 18, 2024 compared with

$690.43 billion a week earlier.

Domestic Debt Market

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6.00

6.50

7.00

7.50

3 Mths 6 Mths 1 Yr 5 Yrs 10 Yrs 20 Yrs 30 Yrs

India Yield Curve Shift (%) (W-o-W)

Change in bps 25-Oct-24 18-Oct-24

Yield in %

Change in bps

Source: Refinitiv

Maturity

G-Sec Yield

(%)

Corporate Yield

(%)

Spread

bps

1 Year 6.71 7.55 84

3 Year 6.86 7.45 59

5 Year 6.88 7.47 59

10 Year 6.96 7.45 49

Source: Refinitiv

Values as on Oct 25, 2024

• Yields on gilt rose up to 10 bps across the

maturities, barring 14 year paper that fell by 3 bps.

• Corporate bond yields increased between 3 to 7 bps

across the curve.

• Difference in spread between AAA corporate bond

and gilt contracted up to 3 bps across the segments,

barring 4, 7 & 15 year papers that expanded by 1 or

2 bps, while 5 year paper remained steady.

Domestic Debt Market (Spread Analysis)

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• SEBI has placed mutual funds under the Prohibition of Insider Trading norms. According to

the norms, fund houses will have to disclose the existing investments of their designated

persons, AMCs, trustees and their immediate family members on a quarterly basis from Nov

01, 2024. However, the capital market regulator clarified that there will be no restrictions on

the investment and redemption of mutual fund units. For employees of fund houses, SEBI

said all employees should refrain from profiting from sale and purchase of securities within

30 calendar days from the date of their personal transaction.

• SEBI has suggested introducing new valuation metrics for repo transactions. According to

the capital market regulator, mark-to-market valuation should be applied to securities used

in repo transactions. The cost plus accrual method is currently used by fund houses to value

repo transactions. Repo transactions on corporate debt securities, commercial papers (CPs),

and certificates of deposit (CDs) are permitted in mutual funds.

• The GST Authority for Advance Rulings in Rajasthan has ruled that a softy ice-cream mix is

primarily made of sugar, not milk. Consequently, it will attract an 18% Goods and Services

Tax.

• The finance minister stated that India will continue to restrict foreign direct investment

from its neighbours for the sake of national interest, emphasizing the need for investment

safeguards. She also calls for reform in Bretton Woods institutions, advocating for inclusive

financial support mechanisms to address global economic challenges.

Regulatory Updates in India

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• According to the notification issued by the finance ministry, the government has reduced

export duty from 10% to ‘nil’ on parboiled rice and husked (brown) rice, w.e.f. Oct 22,

2024.

• The commerce and industry minister at the Asia-Pacific Conference of German Business

stated that there will be no free trade agreement (FTA) between India and the European

Union if the trade bloc insists on opening the dairy sector.

• According to the chairman of IRDAI, the insurance regulator will soon do a soft launch of

Bima Trinity- Bima Vahak, Bima Vistaar and Bima Sugam. Bima Vahaks are the distributors

who can sell insurance policies by doing KYC and facilitating claim servicing on a digital

platform Bima Sugam, Bima Vistaar offers simple products policies having comprehensive

features like both health and life cover.

• The IRDAI chairman has advised insurance companies to work towards enhancing the claim

settlement experience of policyholders, speaking at the CII Insurance Summit in Mumbai.

He also said that the insurance regulator will introduce the National Health Claim

Exchange, which will ensure cashless hospitalization across all hospitals throughout the

country.

Regulatory Updates in India (contd..)

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• According to the University of Michigan, U.S. consumer sentiment index for Oct 2024 was

upwardly revised to 70.5 from a preliminary reading of 68.9. Economists had expected the

index to be upwardly revised slightly to 69.0.

• According to the National Association of Realtors, U.S. existing home sales slid by 1.0% to

an annual rate of 3.84 million in Sep 2024 after tumbling by 2.0% to a revised rate of 3.88

million in Aug 2024.

• According to the Office for National Statistics, U.K. public sector net borrowing increased

to GBP 16.6 billion in Sep 2024 from GBP 14.5 billion in the previous year. This was the

third-highest Sep 2024 borrowing since monthly records began in Jan 1993.

• According to Destatis, Germany’s producer prices dropped 1.4% on a yearly basis in Sep

2024, following a 0.8% fall in Aug and Jul 2024. The annual decline was again driven by the

fall in energy prices. Meanwhile, capital, consumer and intermediate goods were more

expensive. Energy prices plunged 6.6% annually.

• China reduced its benchmark lending rates by 25 basis points on 21st Oct, 2024 as

economic growth slowed further amid persistent deflationary pressures. The People's

Bank of China cut its one-year loan prime rate to 3.10% from 3.35%. Likewise, the five-year

LPR, the benchmark for mortgage rates, was lowered to 3.60% from 3.85%.

• According to the Monetary Authority of Singapore and the Ministry of Trade and Industry,

Singapore’s consumer price index rose 2.0% on a yearly basis in Sep 2024, slower than the

2.2% stable rate of increase in Aug 2024.

Global News/Economy

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Global Indices

Indices

25-Oct-24

1-Week

Return

YTD

Return

Russell 3000 3,019.46 -0.11% 25.66%

Nasdaq 100 20,352.02 0.14% 20.96%

FTSE 100 8,248.84 -1.31% 6.67%

DAX Index 19,463.59 -0.99% 16.19%

Nikkei Average 37,913.92 -2.74% 13.30%

Straits Times 3,593.41 -1.29% 10.90%

Source: Refinitiv Value as on Oct 25, 2024

U.S.

• U.S. equity markets closed on a mixed

note. The market rose driven by

persistent optimism regarding the

economic outlook. Adding to the

economic optimism, the University of

Michigan released revised data showing

consumer sentiment unexpectedly

improved in the month of Oct 2024,

which also helped to boost market

sentiment.

Europe

• European equity markets fell on concerns regarding ongoing tensions in the Middle East,

coupled with uncertainty surrounding the results of the upcoming U.S. presidential

election, had a slight negative impact on stock performance. The market sentiment was

adversely affected by the disappointing reports of private sector activity from the

Eurozone and the U.K. for the month of 2024.

Asia

• Asian equity markets mostly fell ahead of the weekend's elections in Japan, and there is

considerable uncertainty regarding their potential effects on the Bank of Japan's

monetary policy position.

Global Equity Markets

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4.14

4.16

4.18

4.20

4.22

4.24

4.26

21-Oct 22-Oct 23-Oct 24-Oct 25-Oct

Yield in %

US 10-Year Treasury Yield Movement

Source: Refinitiv

• Yields on the 10-year U.S. Treasury rose

by 15 bps to close at 4.23% from the

previous week’s close of 4.08%.

• U.S. Treasury prices fell amid increasing

uncertainty regarding the U.S.

presidential election scheduled for 5th

Nov, 2024, and as investors are

adjusting their expectations to reflect

the possibility of a less dovish U.S.

Federal Reserve policy.

• Further, prices fell as investors awaited

employment data next week for fresh

clues on the likely path of the U.S.

Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts.

Global Debt (U.S.)

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8.50

9.00

9.50

10.00

10.50

11.00

11.50

25-Sep-24 11-Oct-24

Global Commodity Movement

Gold Spot ($/Oz) Silver Spot ($/Oz) Brent ($/bbl)

Global Commodity Prices

Rebased to 10

Source: Refinitiv

Performance of various commodities

Commodities

Last Closing* 1-Week Ago

Brent Crude($/Barrel)

76.67 73.79

Gold ($/Oz)

2,747.69 2,720.25

Gold (Rs/10 gm)

77,622 77,164

Silver ($/Oz)

33.70 33.66

Silver (Rs/Kg)

95,128 92,122

Source: Refinitiv *Value as on Oct 25, 2024

Gold

• Gold prices rose as geopolitical tensions in

the Middle East have led to an increased

demand for the safe-haven asset, gold.

Further, prices rose amid geopolitical

uncertainties and ahead of the U.S.

election.

Brent Crude

• Brent crude oil prices rose on concerns

regarding potential interruptions in crude

oil supplies, coupled with optimism

surrounding an increase in demand from

China following the central bank's decision

to lower its benchmark lending rates.

Furthermore, prices rose amid worries

about geopolitical tensions in Middel East.

Baltic Dry Index

• The index fell over the week due to

sluggish capesize and panamax activities.

Commodities Market

25-Oct-24

3.90%

1.01%

0.13%

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9.20

9.40

9.60

9.80

10.00

10.20

25-Sep-24 11-Oct-24

USD GBP Euro JPY

Source: Refinitiv

Currency Prices ( in terms of INR)

Rebased to 10

Currency Movement

Movement of Rupee vs Other Currencies

Currency

Last Closing* 1-Wk Ago

US Dollar

84.08 84.07

Pound Sterling

108.98 109.80

EURO

90.96 91.17

100 Yen

55.34 56.06

Source: Refinitiv Figures in INR , *Value as on Oct

25, 2024

Rupee

• The Indian rupee in the spot trade fell against

the U.S. dollar due to weakness in its regional

peers and likely outflows from domestic

equities.

Euro

• The euro fell against the greenback as investors

shifted their focus to the safe-haven currency in

anticipation of a volatile two weeks, which

includes an upcoming weekend election in

Japan.

Pound

• Pound fell against the U.S. dollar on

expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve is

anticipated to moderate its approach to

interest rate reductions.

• Yen fell against the U.S. dollar on expectations

of a volatility due to impending election in

Japan.

Currencies Markets

25-Oct-24

0.01%

-1.28%

-0.24%

-0.75%

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The Week that was…

Oct to 25

Oct

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The Week that was (Oct 21 – Oct 25)

Date Events

Present

Value

Monday,

October 21, 2024

• People's Bank of China Interest Rate Decision

3.10% 3.35%

• Eurozone Producer Price Index (MoM) (Sep)

-0.50% 0.20%

Tuesday,

October 22, 2024

• U.S. Redbook Index (YoY) (Oct 18)

4.60% 5.60%

• U.S. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock (Oct 18)

1.643M -1.58M

Wednesday,

October 23, 2024

• Eurozone Consumer Confidence (Oct) Prel

-12.5 -12.9

• U.S. Existing Home Sales Change (MoM) (Sep)

-1.00% -2.00%

Thursday,

October 24, 2024

• Germany HCOB Composite PMI (Oct) Prel

48.40 47.50

• Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Oct) Prel

45.90 45.00

• U.K. S&P Global/CIPS Services PMI (Oct) Prel

51.80 52.40

• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 18)

227K 242K

• U.S. S&P Global Services PMI (Oct) Prel

55.30 55.20

Friday,

October 25, 2024

• Germany IFO

– Current Assessment (Oct) 85.70 84.40

• China FDI

- Foreign Direct Investment (YTD) (YoY) (Sep) -30.40% -31.50%

• U.S. Durable Goods Orders ex Defense (Sep)

-1.10% -1.3%

• U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Oct)

70.50 68.90

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The Week Ahead

Oct to 01

Nov

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The Week Ahead

Day Event

Monday,

Oct 28, 2024

• U.S. 3-Month Bill Auction

• Japan Unemployment Rate (Sep)

Tuesday,

Oct 29, 2024

• Germany GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (Nov)

• U.S. Housing Price Index (MoM) (Aug)

Wednesday,

Oct 30, 2024

• Germany Unemployment Change (Oct)

• Germany Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q3) Prel

• Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q3) Prel

• U.S. ADP Employment Change (Oct)

• U.S. Gross Domestic Product Annualized (Q3) Prel

• Germany Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Oct) Prel

Thursday,

Oct 31, 2024

• India Infrastructure Output (YoY) (Sep)

• Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision

• China NBS Manufacturing PMI (Oct)

• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 25)

Friday,

Nov 01, 2024

• China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Oct)

• U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct)

• U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI (Oct)

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The information herein is meant only for general reading purposes and contains all factual and statistical information pertaining to Industry and

markets which have been obtained from independent third party sources and which are deemed to be reliable. The information provided cannot be

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