News U Can Use
April 12, 2019
The Week that was…
April to 12
Indian Economy
India’s consumer inflation accelerated marginally to 2.86% YoY in Mar 2019 from 2.57% in
Feb 2019 but slowed compared with 4.28% in Mar 2018. Food inflation rose 0.3% in Mar
2019 compared with fall of 0.66% in Feb 2019. Fuel and light inflation also accelerated to
2.42% YoY from 1.24% in Feb 2019.
According to data released by the Central Statistics Office (CSO), India’s Index of
Industrial Production (IIP) growth touched 20-month low in Feb 2019. IIP growth slowed to
0.1% YoY in Feb 2019 from 6.9% in Feb 2018 mainly due to fall in the manufacturing
sector. The manufacturing sector dropped 0.3% in Feb 2019 compared with a rise of 8.4%
a year ago. Cumulatively, during Apr 2018 to Feb 2019 industrial production increased 4%,
marginally slower than 4.3% in the same period of the previous year.
Data from the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM) showed that sales of
passenger vehicles in FY19 slowed to its lowest rate in the last five years. The slowdown
in sales growth can be attributed to tightening of liquidity in the market, high vehicle prices
and uncertainty ahead of the upcoming general elections. Sales of passenger vehicles
grew 2.7% to 3,377,436 units in FY19. However, in Mar 2019, sales of passenger vehicles
fell 2.96% to 29,1806 units.
According to the World Bank, the gross domestic product (GDP) of the Indian economy is
expected to go up to 7.5% in FY20. World Bank estimated the real GDP growth for FY19
at 7.2%.
Indian Equity Market
Domestic Equity Market Indices
Indices 12-Apr-19 1 Week Return YTD Return
S&P BSE Sensex 38,767.11 -0.24% 7.48%
Nifty 50 11,643.45 -0.19% 7.19%
S&P BSE Mid-Cap 15,426.45 -0.53% -0.08%
S&P BSE Small-Cap 15,022.18 -0.16% 2.15%
Source: MFI Explorer
NSE Advance/Decline Ratio
Date Advances Declines
Advance/Decline Ratio
08-Apr-19 700 1,110 0.63
09-Apr-19 800 995 0.80
10-Apr-19 771 1,013 0.76
11-Apr-19 811 976 0.83
12-Apr-19 982 804 1.22
Source: NSE
Indian equity markets closed in the red
in the week ended Apr 12, 2019.
Investors became cautious as they
looked forward to the start of the
corporate earnings season and the
general elections.
The sentiment worsened when the
International Monetary Fund (IMF)
downgraded its global economic growth
outlook by 0.2 percentage points to
3.3%. IMF pointed to the U.S. and
China trade war and Brexit as key risks,
while warning that it could further cut
the outlook. Global cues came in weak
amid U.S. President’s threat to impose
tariffs on a few European goods.
However, strength in the domestic
currency against the greenback
restricted the losses.
Nifty 50
Mid Cap
Small Cap
28.18 29.06 31.29 -169.39
3.17 3.72 2.67 2.30
Dividend Yield
1.12 1.13 0.95 0.87
Source: BSE, NSE Value as on Apr
12, 2019
Indian Equity Market (contd.)
Sectoral Indices
Last Returns (in %)
Closing* 1-Wk 1-Mth
S&P BSE Auto
19,785.20 2.37% -0.16%
S&P BSE Bankex
33,678.63 -0.22% 5.57%
23,353.67 -0.44% 1.39%
18,370.47 0.04% -0.02%
11,879.53 2.16% 0.59%
14,481.90 1.05% 1.04%
15,471.41 -0.54% 3.21%
S&P BSE Metal
11,467.33 -2.06% 0.98%
S&P BSE Oil & Gas
14,827.76 -0.09% 0.20%
S&P BSE Teck
7678.65 -0.80% 1.74%
Source: Thomson Reuters Eikon
*Value as on Apr 12, 2019
On the BSE sectoral front, indices closed on
a weak note. S&P BSE Metal was the major
loser, down 2.06% followed by S&P BSE
Teck that fell 0.80%. Metal sector fell likely
following weak global cues due to concerns
over soft global growth and fear of US-EU
trade war.
S&P BSE Information Technology and S&P
BSE Consumer Durables fell 0.54% and
0.44%, respectively. Investors remained
cautious ahead of release of results two
major information technology companies on
Apr 12, 2019, thereby keeping the sector
under pressure.
Indian Derivatives Market Review
Nifty Apr 2019 Futures were at 11,703.85, a premium of 60.40 points, above the spot
closing of 11,643.45. The total turnover on NSE’s Futures and Options segment for the
week stood at Rs. 49.85 lakh crore as against Rs. 52.43 lakh crore for the week to Apr 5.
The Put-Call ratio remained unchanged at 0.85 from the previous week’s close of 0.96.
The Nifty Put-Call ratio stood at 1.55 against the previous week’s close of 1.61.
Domestic Debt Market
Debt Indicators
Call Rate
6.05 5.98 6.14 6.42
91 Day T-Bill
6.31 6.21 6.41 6.89
07.32% 2024, (5 Yr GOI)
7.20 7.05 7.02 --
07.26% 2029, (10 Yr GOI)
7.41 7.35 7.36 --
Source: Thomson Reuters Eikon
Value as on Apr 12 2019
Bond yields rose following surge in
global crude oil prices with rising
fights in Libya and OPEC-led supply
cuts. Decline in the rupee against the
greenback amid volatility also
weighed on the bond market
However, losses were limited
following dollar sales by banks.
Meanwhile, investors preferred to be
on the sidelines ahead of the Mar
2019 retail inflation data.
Yields on the 10-year benchmark
paper (7.26% GS 2029) increased 6
bps to close at 7.41% compared with
the previous close of 7.35% after
trading in the range of 7.36% to
8-Apr 9-Apr 10-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr
Yield in %
10 -Yr Benchmark Bond ( % )
Source: CCIL
Domestic Debt Market (Spread Analysis)
G-Sec Yield
Corporate Yield
1 Year 6.62 8.16 154
3 Year 7.13 8.11 98
5 Year 7.33 8.48 115
10 Year 7.55 8.60 105
Source: Thomson Reuters Eikon Value as on Apr 12, 2019
Yields on gilt securities increased across the
maturities by up to 18 bps barring 30-year
paper that fell 2 bps.
Corporate bond yields increased across the
maturities in the range of 3 bps to 12 bps
barring 15-year paper that fell 2 bps.
Difference in spread between AAA corporate
bond and gilt contracted across the
maturities in the range of 3 bps to 7 bps
barring 1-year paper that expanded 1 bps.
3 Mths 6 Mths 1 Yr 5 Yrs 10 Yrs 20 Yrs 30 Yrs
India Yield Curve Shift (%) (W-o-W)
Change in bps 12-Apr-19 05-Apr-19
Yield in %
Change in bps
Source: Thomson Reuters Eikon
Regulatory Updates in India
Capital market regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) streamlined the
process for issuing certified copies of orders and circulars to the involved parties and other
applicants. According to SEBI, certified copies of the orders that are already approved will
be provided free of cost to the parties who are involved in the proceedings. However,
applicants need to pay fees for additional certified copies of the order. For those applicants
that are not directly related to the proceeding, a fee of Rs. 50 per order or Rs. 5 per page
whichever is higher will be charged as fees for each certified copy.
According to the Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority of India (IRDAI),
insurance companies need to inform about claim settlement status to policyholders at
various stages of processing from Jul. IRDAI also advocated for the adoption of a clear and
transparent communication policy in order to protect the interest of the shareholders.
According to Praapti (Payment Ratification And Analysis in Power procurement for bringing
Transparency in Invoicing of generators), the outstanding dues of power producers on
electricity distribution utilities grew in excess of 20% to Rs. 40,804 crore in Jan 2019 from
Rs. 33,848 crore in the same period of the previous year. The total overdue amount, which
was not cleared even after 60 days of grace period offered by generators, stood at Rs.
26,052 crore as compared with Rs. 20,264 crore in the same period of the previous year.
Regulatory Updates in India (contd..)
GST officers have started seeking clarification from companies whose tax payments did not
match with the e-way bills generated, as revenue authorities start matching supplies data to
check tax evasion, sources said. Touted as an anti-evasion measure, e-way bill system was
rolled out on Apr 1, 2018, for moving goods worth over Rs 50,000 from one state to another.
The Supreme Court issued an interim order directing all political parties to disclose to the
Election Commission details of donations received through electoral bonds till May 15,
2019. Names and details of donors also need to be disclosed. All the information should be
provided to the Election Commission by May 31, 2019. Supreme Court also directed the
finance ministry to make amendments with respect to the extra five days provided in the
months of Apr and May for issuance of electoral bonds by the State Bank of India. The law
allows only a 50-day period in the months of Jan, Apr, Jul and Oct during which the bonds
can be bought.
The Income Tax department provided 277 start-ups an all clear certificate. This will shield
them from the angel tax as the government gets started with the implementation of the new
start-up framework. A total of 302 entities had applied for it, said media reports.
Global News/Economy
The minutes of U.S. Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Mar 2019 meeting showed the outlook for
rates remains fluid. Projections provided by Fed after the monetary policy meeting had
hinted that the central bank no longer expects to raise interest rates in 2019. The minutes
said a majority of meeting participants expected that the evolution of the economic outlook
and risks to the outlook would likely warrant leaving rates unchanged for the remainder of
the year.
The European Central Bank kept interest rates on hold in its monetary policy review. Thus,
the main refinance rate stood at a record low of 0%. Deposit rate stood at -0.40% while the
marginal standing facility stood at 0.25%. The governing council expects interest rates to
remain at present levels till the end of 2019.
Cabinet Office data showed Japan consumer confidence weakened to the lowest in three
years in Mar 2019. The consumer confidence index for households with two or more persons
fell to a seasonally adjusted 40.5 in Mar from 41.5 in Feb 2019 and could not meet
expectations. The latest reading was the lowest since Feb 2016, when the confidence index
was 40.2.
Global Equity Markets
Global Indices
Dow Jones
26,412.30 -0.05% 13.22%
Nasdaq 100
7,628.15 0.65% 20.51%
FTSE 100
7,437.06 -0.13% 10.54%
DAX Index
11,999.93 -0.08% 13.65%
Nikkei Average
21,870.56 0.29% 9.27%
Straits Times
3,331.98 0.28% 8.58%
Source: Thomson Reuters Eikon
Value as on Apr 12, 2019
U.S. markets mostly gained as the
minutes of the Fed's Mar meeting
indicated that it may refrain from raising
interest rates in 2019.
Robust quarterly earning numbers of
some major companies also provided
some support. However, worries over
renewed trade tensions between U.S.
and European Union capped the gains.
European markets mostly remained subdued on worries about the global economic
slowdown, which further amplified after reports suggested that IMF has downgraded
global economic outlook for 2019. Additionally, reports suggested that U.S. is considering
imposition of tariffs on European Union goods in response to European aircraft subsidies.
Asian markets rose as U.S.-China trade talks showed signs of progress. Chinese media
reported that there was “new progress” in trade talks. Also, the minutes of the U.S. Fed's
March meeting indicated that the central bank may refrain from raising interest rate during
the year.
Global Debt (U.S.)
Yields on the 10-year U.S. Treasury
bond rose 6 bps to close at 2.56%
compared with the previous week’s
close of 2.50%.
U.S. Treasury prices rose initially as
market participants remained concerned
over a trade dispute between U.S. and
the European Union. U.S. Treasury
prices rose further after the International
Monetary Fund lowered its global
growth forecasts for 2019.Gains were
extended after policy meeting minutes
of the U.S. Federal Reserve held in Mar
2019 suggested that the U.S. central
bank may leave interest rates
unchanged this year.
However, the trend reversed after a
slew of upbeat U.S. economic data and
a rebound in exports from China in Mar
2019 tempered concerns of a slowdown
in global growth and subsequently
reduced the safe haven appeal of U.S.
8-Apr 9-Apr 10-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr
Yield in %
US 10-Year Treasury Yield Movement
Source: Thomson Reuters Eikon
Commodities Market
Performance of various commodities
Last Closing* 1-Week Ago
Brent Crude($/Barrel) 72.21 70.52
Gold ($/Oz) 1,290.00 1,291.30
Gold (Rs/10 gm) 31,673 31,615
Silver ($/Oz) 14.95 15.08
Silver (Rs/Kg) 37,235 37,561
Source: Thomson Reuters Eikon *Value as on Apr 12, 2019
Gold prices rose initially in the wake of
renewed concerns over global economic
slowdown. However, the trend reversed
on the last day of the week as upbeat
quarterly earnings numbers of a few
prominent companies boosted risk-
taking appetite of investors.
Brent Crude
Brent crude prices surged with
sentiment supported by Organisation of
Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)-
led supply cuts, escalating tension in
Libya and U.S. sanctions on petroleum
exporters Iran and Venezuela. Gains
were further led by fall in Saudi Arabia’s
crude oil production to the lowest in two
Baltic Dry Index
The Baltic Dry Index rose on the back of
higher capesize and panamax activities.
12-Mar-19 28-Mar-19
Global Commodity Movement
Gold Spot ($/Oz) Silver Spot ($/Oz) Brent ($/bbl)
Global Commodity Prices
Rebased to 10
Source: Thomson Reuters Eikon
- 0.10%
- 0.86%
12-Mar-19 28-Mar-19
Source: RBI
Currency Prices ( in terms of
Rebased to 10
Currency Movement
Currencies Markets
Movement of Rupee vs Other Currencies
Currency Last Closing* 1-Wk Ago
US Dollar
69.32 69.20
Pound Sterling
90.56 90.64
78.23 77.73
100 Yen
61.99 61.96
Source: RBI Figures in INR , *Value as on Apr 12 2019
The Indian rupee weakened against the
greenback due to surge in crude prices.
However, dollar sales by banks and the
U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policy
outlook reaffirming cautious rate hikes
restricted further losses.
Euro rose against the greenback after
strong economic data from U.S. and
China eased global growth concerns and
reduced safe-haven positions in the
Sterling rose against the greenback on
hopes of a delay in Brexit by few months
and concerns of a no-deal exit for Britain
eased to some extent.
Yen weakened against the U.S. dollar
following upbeat U.S. economic data
which strengthened the latter.
The Week that was…
April to 12
The Week that was (Apr 8 Apr 12)
Date Events Present Value Previous Value
April 08, 2019
Japan Consumer Confidence Index (Mar) 40.50 41.50
• U.S. Durable Goods Orders (Feb F) -1.60% -1.60%
• U.S. Factory Orders (Feb) -0.50% 0.10%
April 09, 2019
• Japan Machine Orders (YoY) (Feb) -5.50% -2.90%
April 10, 2019
European Central Bank Rate Decision (Apr 10) 0.00% 0.00%
• U.S. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Mar) 1.90% 1.50%
U.K. Trade Balance (Feb) -£4860m -£5345m
U.K. Gross Domestic Product (MoM) (Feb) 0.20% 0.50%
U.K. Manufacturing Production (YoY) (Feb) 0.60% -0.70%
April 11, 2019
• China Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Mar) 2.30% 1.50%
Germany Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Mar F) 1.30% 1.30%
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (Apr 06) 196k 204k
China Producer Price Index (YoY) (Mar) 0.40% 0.10%
April 12, 2019
India Consumer Price Inflation (Mar) 2.86% 2.57%
India Index of Industrial production (Feb) 0.10% 1.40%
• U.S University of Michigan Sentiment (Apr P) 96.90 98.40
China Trade Balance (Mar) $32.64b $4.08b
China New Yuan Loans CNY (Mar) 1,690b 885.8b
The Week Ahead
April to 19
The Week Ahead
Day Event
April 15, 2019
India Wholesale Price Index (Mar 19)
China New Yuan Loans CNY (Mar)
April 16, 2019
Eurozone ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) (Apr)
China New Home Prices (MoM) (Mar)
U.S. Industrial Production (MoM) (Mar)
April 17, 2019
China Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (1Q)
U.K. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Mar)
China Retail Sales YTD (YoY) (Mar)
Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (Feb F)
Eurozone Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Mar F)
April 18, 2019
U.S. Retail Sales Advance (MoM) (Mar)
Eurozone Markit Services PMI (Apr P)
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (Apr 13)
U.S. Markit Services PMI (Apr P)
April 19, 2019
U.S. Housing Starts (MoM) (Mar)
U.S. Building Permits (MoM) (Mar)
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