News U Can Use
April 19, 2019
The Week that was…
April to 19
Indian Economy
India’s Wholesale Price Index (WPI)- based inflation accelerated for the second
consecutive month in Mar 2019. WPI rose to 3.18% in Mar 2019 from 2.93% in Feb 2019
and 2.74% in Mar 2018. Factors behind the acceleration is costlier food and fuel. Food
articles inflation hardened from 4.28% in Feb 2019 to 5.68% in Mar 2019 due to faster rise
in prices of vegetables. Fuel and power inflation also went up from 2.23% in Feb 2019 to
5.41% in Mar 2019..
India’s trade deficit contracted to $10.89 billion in Mar 2019 from $13.51 billion in Mar 2018
due to growth acceleration in exports. Exports rose 11.02% YoY in Mar 2019 to $32.55
billion while imports edged up 1.44% in Mar 2019 to $43.44 Billion. Non-petroleum and
non-gems and jewellery exports went up 13.41% YoY to $25.59. Oil imports increased
5.55% to $11.75 billion whereas non-oil imports remained steady at $31.69 billion in the
reported month.
According to a report from a major domestic credit rating agency, the issuance of
government-fully serviced bonds (GoI-FSBs) rose to Rs. 64,192 crore in FY19 as
compared with Rs. 15,095 crore in the same period of the previous fiscal. Borrowings are
estimated to have accounted for 0.34% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in FY19 as
compared with 0.09% of GDP in FY18. The objective of the borrowings is to meet the
expenditure towards various schemes of the government.
Indian Equity Market
Domestic Equity Market Indices
1 Week Return
YTD Return
S&P BSE Sensex
0.96% 8.52%
Nifty 50
0.94% 8.20%
-0.28% -0.36%
S&P BSE Small
-0.01% 2.14%
Source: MFI Explorer
NSE Advance/Decline Ratio
Date Advances Declines
Advance/Decline Ratio
15-Apr-19 1033 767 1.35
16-Apr-19 896 891 1.01
18-Apr-19 543 1288 0.42
Source: NSE
Indian equity markets witnessed gain
during the holiday-truncated trading
week. Initially, markets got support after
the India Meteorological Department
(IMD) forecasted near-normal
monsoons in 2019. The prediction
bolstered investor sentiment that
earnings will see a turnaround and
improve the health of the economy.
Good earnings report by a leading
information technology company and
expectations of a stable government
post elections also helped sentiment.
Expectations of more rate-cuts by the
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in the
coming time also helped sentiment.
Positive global cues acted as catalyst
as U.S.-China trade talks seemed to go
in the right direction.
Nifty 50
Mid Cap
Small Cap
28.34 29.33 31.18 -168.56
3.19 3.75 2.66 2.29
Dividend Yield
1.12 1.12 0.95 0.87
Source: BSE, NSE Value as on Apr 18, 2019
Indian Equity Market (contd.)
Sectoral Indices
Last Returns (in %)
Closing* 1-Wk 1-Mth
S&P BSE Auto
20,201.09 2.10% 4.61%
S&P BSE Bankex
34,020.46 1.02% 1.82%
23,616.28 1.12% 1.83%
11,881.72 0.02% 0.78%
15,559.94 0.57% 2.88%
S&P BSE Metal
11,601.42 1.17% 2.66%
S&P BSE Oil & Gas
15,008.46 1.22% -2.21%
Source: Thomson Reuters Eikon
*Value as on Apr 18, 2019
On the BSE sectoral front, most of the
indices closed in the green. S&P BSE Auto
(2.10%) was the major gainer followed by
S&P BSE Oil & Gas (1.22%) and S&P BSE
Metal (1.17%). The metal sector gained as
positive developments were seen on the
U.S.-China trade talks front. The U.S.
Treasury Secretary said a U.S.-China trade
deal would go "way beyond" earlier efforts to
open the Chinese market to U.S. companies.
The banking sector also gained after a major
brokerage firm said in a note that slide in
credit costs would boost growth of private
sector lenders.
Indian Derivatives Market Review
Nifty Apr 2019 Futures were at 11,771.10, a premium of 18.30 points, above the spot
closing of 11,752.80. The total turnover on NSE’s Futures and Options segment for the
week stood at Rs. 38.58 lakh crore as against Rs. 49.85 lakh crore for the week to Apr 12.
The Put-Call ratio stood at 0.88 compared with the previous week’s close of 0.85.
The Nifty Put-Call ratio stood at 1.58 against the previous week’s close of 1.55.
Domestic Debt Market
Debt Indicators
Call Rate
6.08 6.05 6.20 6.55
91 Day T
6.34 6.31 6.28 6.95
07.32% 2024, (5 Yr GOI)
7.25 7.20 7.01 --
07.26% 2029, (10 Yr GOI)
7.42 7.41 7.38 --
Source: Thomson Reuters Eikon
Value as on Apr 18 2019
Bond yields rose marginally in the
holiday-truncated week. Investors
were cautious ahead of the release of
the Monetary Policy Committee’s
(MPC) Apr 2019 policy review
meeting’s minutes, for guidance on
the interest rate movement. Huge
quantum of bond supply also created
upward pressure on yield.
However, losses were restricted as
hopes of a normal monsoon gave
comfort on the future inflation front. In
addition, the country’s core inflation
dropped to 5.1% for Mar 2019
compared with 5.4% in the prior
Yields on the 10-year benchmark
paper (7.26% GS 2029) rose 1 bps to
close at 7.42% compared with the
previous close of 7.41% after trading
in the range of 7.38% to 7.43%.
15-Apr 16-Apr 18-Apr
Yield in %
10 -Yr Benchmark Bond ( % )
Source: CCIL
Domestic Debt Market (Spread Analysis)
Sec Yield
Corporate Yield
1 Year 6.64 8.17 153
3 Year 7.10 8.17 107
5 Year 7.38 8.56 118
10 Year 7.56 8.60 105
Source: Thomson Reuters Eikon
Value as on Apr 18
, 2019
Yields on gilt securities increased across the
maturities by up to 7 bps barring 3-year
paper that fell 3 bps.
Corporate bond yields increased across the
maturities by up to 6 bps. The maximum
increase was witnessed across 3 to 5 years’
maturities and the minimum increase was
witnessed on 2- and 10-year maturities.
Difference in spread between AAA corporate
bond and gilt contracted 1 bps each on 2-
and 15-year papers.
3 Mths 6 Mths 1 Yr 5 Yrs 10 Yrs 20 Yrs 30 Yrs
India Yield Curve Shift (%) (W-o-W)
Change in bps 18-Apr-19 12-Apr-19
in %
in bps
Source: Thomson Reuters Eikon
Regulatory Updates in India
Capital Minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee’s policy (MPC) review meeting held on
Apr 4, 2019 showed that most of the policymakers agreed to lower key policy repo rate in
order to boost growth of the Indian economy as domestic inflationary pressures remained
muted. However, some policymakers warned that inadequate monsoons may lead to an
increase in food prices which may push inflation above the Reserve Bank of India’s 4%
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in a submission to the National Company Law Appellate
Tribunal (NCLAT) directed that banks need to show defaults of Infrastructure Leasing &
Financial Services Group companies as non-performing assets in their accounts. Earlier,
NCLAT had directed banks to seek approval from the tribunal before showing defaults of
IL&FS group accounts as non-performing assets.
The Ministry of Commerce came out with a new procedure for importing of various varieties
of pulses during the current fiscal. According to the new norm, the applicant/millers need to
provide a self-certified copy of a document indicating its refining/ processing capacity. The
move came after the government took cognizance of the bumper output of pulses and
decided to impose a quantitative cap on imports. This is because as per reports, India has
been importing 4-6 MT (million tonne) pulses every year to meet the domestic demand of
the country.
Regulatory Updates in India (contd..)
According to media reports, the government is considering easing funding and construction
norms for its Housing for All’ programme. The objective of the move is to increase the pace
of construction of affordable houses across the country. Some of the changes that the
government is considering to incorporate is allowing more access of institutional finance to
the poor, relaxing the eligibility criteria in obtaining bank loans and adopting the cycle cost
approach towards construction of such houses in order to lower cost and ensure quality of
construction. The government is also contemplating extending financial support to
companies which use recycled products from waste for construction of such houses.
According to the RBI governor, the Indian economy is expected to witness a growth rate of
7.2% in FY20 and will thus remain the fastest growing economy of the year. However, the
RBI governor warned that a slowdown in global growth, weakening trade, developments
over Brexit and global trade war tensions may adversely impact the growth prospects of the
economies. The RBI governor also advocated for cooperation among emerging market
economies to help counter the uncertain global environment.
Global News/Economy
A report from the U.S. Commerce Department showed that retail sales in the U.S. increased
1.6% in Mar 2019 after falling 0.2% in Feb 2019. Retail sales grew as sales by motor vehicle
and parts dealers surged 3.1% in Mar 2019 after falling 0.1% in Feb 2019.
Data from Eurostat showed that euro zone headline inflation or consumer price inflation
slowed to 1.4% on a yearly basis in Mar 2019 from 1.5% in Feb 2019. Core inflation also
eased to 0.8% on a yearly basis in Mar 2019 from 1% in Feb 2019. However, on a monthly
basis consumer price inflation grew 1%.
The National Bureau of Statistics said China's gross domestic product (GDP) expanded a
seasonally adjusted 1.4% QoQ in the first quarter of 2019. This was in line with expectations
and down from 1.5% in the three months prior. On a yearly basis, GDP expanded 6.4%,
unchanged from Q4 and beating forecasts.
According to the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Japan’s consumer price
inflation rose 0.5% YoY in Mar 2019 as against 0.2% in Feb 2019. Core consumer prices
rose 0.8% YoY as compared with 0.7% in Feb 2019.
Global Equity Markets
Global Indices
Dow Jones
26,559.54 0.56% 13.86%
Nasdaq 100
7,689.72 0.81% 21.48%
FTSE 100
7,459.88 0.31% 10.88%
DAX Index
12,222.39 1.85% 15.75%
Nikkei Average*
22,200.56 1.51% 10.92%
Straits Times
3,347.58 0.47% 9.09%
Source: Thomson Reuters Eikon ;
Value as on
Apr 18, 2019; * Value as on Apr 19, 2019
Majority of the U.S. markets ended the
holiday-truncated week on a positive
note. Quarterly earnings of major
companies across various sectors set
an optimistic mood of the markets.
Gains were restricted to some extent by
a report from the U.S. Federal Reserve
showing industrial production
unexpectedly edged lower in Mar 2019.
European markets too witnessed buying spree, with investor sentiment boosted by
encouraging results from major U.S. companies, upbeat German investor confidence and
U.K. employment data. The German investor confidence topped market expectation in Apr
2019 and U.K. employment growth rose more than expected in the three months to Feb
2019 to a record high. Growing optimism over U.S.-China trade talks and easing concerns
over Brexit helped improve buying interest.
Asian markets were no exception to the trend in global counterparts. Investor sentiment
was buoyed as China's economic growth beat forecasts in the first quarter of 2019. The
country’s growth remained steady YoY despite tepid global demand and U.S. trade war.
Global Debt (U.S.)
Yields on the 10-year U.S. Treasury
bond remained steady at 2.56%
compared with the previous week’s
U.S. Treasury prices fell initially as
market participants remained on the
sidelines and awaited key economic
data from U.S. and euro zone. Losses
were extended as investor risk appetite
improved after U.S. retail sales
rebounded in Mar 2019 from the
previous month.
However, all the losses were neutralized
as U.S. Treasury prices rose following
downbeat manufacturing activity data
(preliminary) for Apr 2019 from euro
zone that fueled concerns of a global
economic slowdown and boosted the
safe haven appeal of U.S. Treasuries.
15-Apr 16-Apr 17-Apr 18-Apr
Yield (in %)
US 10-Year Treasury Yield Movement
Source: Thomson Reuters Eikon
Commodities Market
Performance of various commodities
Last Closing*
1-Week Ago
Brent Crude($/Barrel)
70.45 72.21
Gold ($/Oz)
1,275.01 1,290.00
Gold (Rs/10 gm)
31,394 31,673
Silver ($/Oz) **
14.93 14.95
Silver (Rs/Kg)
37,191 37,235
Source: Thomson Reuters Eikon ; *Value as on Apr 18, 2019; **Value as on Apr 19, 2019
Gold prices slid on optimism over U.S.-
China trade talks, which lifted the global
stock market. Besides, a good
beginning to the U.S. corporate
earnings season reduced the safe
haven appeal of the bullion. Stronger
economic data from China and Europe
also lifted appetite for riskier assets.
Brent Crude
Brent crude prices fell on concerns over
the poor economic growth outlook for
China. Reports that a Russian minister
has stated that Russia and OPEC may
consider boosting crude oil production
to prevent U.S. from gaining market
share also weighed on the prices.
Baltic Dry Index
The Baltic Dry Index grew on the back
of improved capesize and panamax
19-Mar-19 29-Mar-19 8-Apr-19 18-Apr-19
Global Commodity Movement
Gold Spot ($/Oz) Silver Spot ($/Oz) Brent ($/bbl)
Global Commodity Prices
Rebased to 10
Source: Thomson Reuters Eikon; *data as on Apr 19, 2019
Currencies Markets
Movement of Rupee vs Other Currencies
Last Closing*
1-Wk Ago
US Dollar
69.42 69.32
Pound Sterling
90.55 90.56
78.43 78.23
100 Yen
62.04 61.99
Source: RBI Figures in INR , *
Value as on Apr 18 2019
The Indian rupee weakened against the
greenback after India’s trade deficit
widened in Mar 2019 over the month and
following dollar demand from importers.
Euro weakened against the greenback
following downbeat manufacturing
activity data (preliminary) for Apr 2019.
Uncertainty over the growth recovery in
the euro zone in the second half of 2019
also dented market sentiment.
Sterling weakened against the
greenback amid reports that Brexit talks
between Britain’s Prime Minister and the
opposition party had stalled.
Yen traded in a tight range and inched up
against the greenback as downbeat
manufacturing activity data (preliminary)
for Apr from euro zone boosted its safe
haven appeal.
19-Mar-19 3-Apr-19 18-Apr-19
Source: RBI
Prices (
in terms of
Rebased to 10
Currency Movement
The Week that was…
April to 19
The Week that was (Apr 15 Apr 19)
Date Events
April 15, 2019
• U.S. Empire Manufacturing (Apr)
10.1 3.7 8.0
• India Wholesale Price Index (Mar 19)
3.18% 2.93% 3.20%
April 16, 2019
• China New Home Prices (MoM) (Mar)
0.61% 0.53% --
• Japan Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (Feb)
-0.6% 0.6% -0.2%
• Eurozone German ZEW Survey Expectations (Apr)
3.1 -3.6 0.8
• U.K. Jobless Claims Change (Mar)
28.3k 26.7k 20.0k
• Japan Trade Balance (Mar)
¥528.5b ¥334.9b ¥363.2b
April 17, 2019
• China Industrial Production (YoY) (Mar)
8.5% 5.3% 5.9%
• China Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (1Q)
6.4% 6.4% 6.3%
• Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (Feb F)
-1.1% -1.0% --
• U.K. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Mar)
1.9% 1.9% 2.0%
• Eurozone Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Mar F)
1.4% 1.5% 1.4%
April 18, 2019
• Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI (Apr P)
47.8 47.5 --
• Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI (Apr P)
44.5 44.1 --
• U.S. Retail Sales Advance (MoM) (Mar)
1.6% -0.2% 1.0%
• U.S. Markit Manufacturing PMI (Apr P)
52.4 52.4 52.8
• U.S
. Leading Index (Mar) 0.4% 0.1% 0.4%
• Japan National Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Mar)
0.5% 0.2% 0.5%
April 19, 2019
• U.S. Housing Starts (MoM) (Mar)
-0.3% -12.0% 5.4%
• U.S. Building Permits (MoM) (Mar)
-1.7% -2.0% 0.7%
The Week Ahead
April to 26
The Week Ahead
Day Event
April 22, 2019
U.S. Existing Home Sales (MoM) (Mar)
Japan Convenience Store Sales (YoY) (Mar)
April 23, 2019
U.S. Housing Price Index (MoM) (Feb)
U.S. New Home Sales (MoM) (Mar
U.S. New Home Sales Change (MoM) (Mar)
April 24, 2019
Japan All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (Feb
Japan Leading Economic Index (Feb)
Eurozone IFO - Current Assessment (Apr)
U.K. Public Sector Net Borrowing (Mar)
April 25, 2019
Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (Apr 19)
U.S. Durable Goods Orders (Mar P)
Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (Mar)
April 26, 2019
U.S. Gross Domestic Product Annualized (Q1) (P)
U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Apr)
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