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NEWS U CAN USE
March 5, 2021
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The Week that was…
1
st
Mar to 5
th
Mar
2
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Indian Economy
• According to the preliminary data of the commerce ministry, India’s exports fell 0.25% YoY
to USD 27.67 billion in Feb 2021 as compared to USD 27.74 billion in Feb 2020. Imports
during the month rose 6.98% to USD 40.55 billion in Feb 2021 as compared to USD 37.90
billion in Feb 2020. Thus, India had a trade deficit of USD 12.88 billion in Feb 2021, 25.84%
increase from trade deficit of USD 10.16 billion in Feb 2020. Oil imports fell 16.63% to USD
8.99 billion in Feb 2021.
• Data from a private survey showed that the seasonally adjusted IHS Markit India
Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 57.5 in Feb 2021 from 57.7 in Jan
2021. Manufacturing activity growth slowed slightly in Feb 2021 compared to the previous
month, but it remained strong. However, because of the COVID-19 limitations,
employment declined even further.
• Data from the private survey showed that the seasonally adjusted India Services Business
Activity Index rose to 55.3 in Feb 2021 from 52.8 in Jan 2021. The Composite PMI Output
increased to 57.3 in Feb 2021 from 55.8 in Jan 2021. The increase in service activity came
as the roll-out of COVID-19 vaccines led to an improvement in business confidence
towards growth prospects.
• According to reports, the gross Goods and service Tax (GST) revenue collected in the
month of Feb 2021 is Rs 1.13 trillion. CGST is about Rs. 21,092 crore, SGST is about Rs.
27,273 crore, IGST is about Rs. 55,253 crore and Cess is about Rs. 9,525 crore of the total
gross collections (including Rs. 660 crore collected on import of goods).
3
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4
Domestic Equity Market Indices
Indices 05-Mar-21 1 Week Return YTD Return
S&P BSE Sensex
50,405.32 2.66% 5.56%
Nifty 50
14,938.10 2.81% 6.84%
S&P BSE Mid-Cap
20,587.80 3.05% 14.75%
S&P BSE Small-Cap
20,936.02 3.87% 15.68%
Source: MFI Explorer
NSE Advance/Decline Ratio
Date Advances Declines
Advance/Decline Ratio
01-Mar-21 1,297 700 1.85
02-Mar-21 1,189 729 1.63
03-Mar-21 1,206 734 1.64
04-Mar-21 1,047 896 1.17
05-Mar-21 537 1,423 0.38
Source: NSE
• Indian equity markets managed to end
the week with modest gains. Bourses
rose initially on the back of positive
GDP number for Dec quarter published
on Feb 26 post market hours. Upbeat
manufacturing PMI data and launch of
the next phase of COVID vaccination in
India, too supported buying interest.
• Global cues were also supportive
following approval of the USD 1.9
trillion package by the U.S. House of
Representatives. An improved outlook
post-Feb auto sales numbers resulted
in continued buying in auto stocks with
IT sector also being a major contributor
in the rally.
• However, rebound of yields on U.S.
Treasury later during the week capped
the gains.
Ratios
S&P BSE
Sensex
Nifty 50
S&P BSE
Mid Cap
S&P BSE
Small Cap
P/E
35.12 40.76 58.26 -176.38
P/B
3.40 4.23 3.02 2.84
Dividend Yield
0.71 1.06 0.90 0.84
Source: BSE, NSE Va
lue as on Mar 5, 2021
Indian Equity Market
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5
Sectoral Indices
Indices
Last
Closing*
Returns (in %)
1-Wk 1-Mth
S&P BSE Auto
23,740.0 3.50% -2.01%
S&P BSE Bankex
39,692.3 1.82% -1.51%
S&P BSE CD
32,749.3 3.12% 3.01%
S&P BSE CG
21,889.0 1.72% 1.03%
S&P BSE FMCG
12,310.9 2.88% -3.63%
S&P BSE HC
21,205.3 1.68% -2.75%
S&P BSE IT
25,432.4 4.13% -0.15%
S&P BSE Metal
13,905.8 1.36% 12.81%
S&P BSE Oil & Gas
16,090.8 3.52% 10.07%
Source:
Refinitiv *Value as on Mar 5, 2021
• On the BSE sectoral front, all the major
sectors closed in the green. S&P BSE IT was
the top gainer, up 4.13%, followed by S&P BSE
Power and S&P BSE Oil & Gas, which rose
4.02% and 3.52%, respectively. IT stock went
up on the back of improved U.S. economic
outlook amid hopes over the passage of $1.9
trillion coronavirus relief bill.
Indian Derivatives Market Review
• Nifty Mar 2021 Futures stood at 14,953.05, a premium of 14.95 points above the spot
closing of 14,938.10. The total turnover on NSE’s Futures and Options segment for the
week stood at Rs. 227.01 lakh crore as against Rs. 221.51 lakh crore for the week to Feb 26.
• The Put-Call ratio stood at 0.98 compared with the previous week’s close of 1.11.
• The Nifty Put-Call ratio stood at 1.12 compared with the previous week’s close of 0.93.
Indian Equity Market (contd.)
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6
Debt Indicators
(%)
Current
Value
1-Wk
Ago
1-Mth
Ago
6-Mth
Ago
Call Rate
3.16 3.24 3.26 3.43
91 Day T-Bill
3.28 3.17 3.37 3.27
05.22% 2025, (5 Yr GOI)
5.71 5.66 5.45 5.23
05.85% 2030, (10 Yr GOI)
6.23 6.23 6.07 --
Source: Refinitiv Value as on Mar 5, 2021
• Bond yields were little changed after
moving in a range during the week.
Yields fell on expectations that the
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will
continue to buy sovereign debt. Gains
were also seen after the RBI
conducted the Special Open Market
Operations (OMO) to buy and sell
government securities.
• However, gains reversed on rise in U.S.
Treasury yields and global crude oil
prices, and after the RBI devolved
three government securities on
primary dealers at its weekly bond
auction.
• Yield on the 10-year benchmark paper
(5.85% GS 2030) remained unchanged
at 6.23% from the previous week’s
close after moving in a range of 6.19%
to 6.26%.
Domestic Debt Market
6.14
6.20
6.26
1-Mar 2-Mar 3-Mar 4-Mar 5-Mar
Yield in %
10 -Yr Benchmark Bond ( % )
Source: CCIL
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7
Maturity
G-Sec Yield
(%)
Corporate Yield
(%)
Spread
bps
1 Year 4.20 4.25 5
3 Year 5.12 5.63 51
5 Year 5.94 6.34 40
10 Year 6.33 7.43 110
Source: Refinitiv Value as on
Mar 5, 2021
• Yields on gilt securities rose in the range of 2 to
9 bps across maturities, barring 3-, 11-, 14-, 19- &
30-year papers that fell by up to 3 bps. Yield rose
the most on 13-year paper.
• Corporate bond yields rose by up to 22 bps
across the curve, leaving 8- to 10-year & 15-year
papers that fell in the range of 2 to 5 bps. Yield
rose the most on 3-year paper.
• Spread between AAA corporate bond and gilt
expanded by up to 14 bps on 1 to 5-year papers
while remaining securities contracted by up to 5
bps. Spread rose the most on 3-year paper.
Domestic Debt Market (Spread Analysis)
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4
16
2.60
5.00
7.40
3 Mths 6 Mths 1 Yr 5 Yrs 10 Yrs 19 Yrs 30 Yrs
India Yield Curve Shift (%) (W-o-W)
Change in bps 05-Mar-21 26-Feb-21
Yield in %
Change in bps
Source: Refinitiv
Mutual Fund Investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.
8
• Capital market regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) has undertaken a
regulatory revamp exercise of SEBI (Mutual Funds) Regulations, 1996 (hereinafter called as
“MF Regulations”) and various circulars issued thereunder. Some of the changes include
modification of provisions of various circulars with regard to cumulative gross exposure limit
for mutual fund schemes; changes in the notes and disclosures of performance of mutual
fund schemes.
• SEBI, in its latest circular on mutual fund regulation, has mandated that in case of overnight
funds, liquid funds and money market funds, wherein investors have very short investment
horizon, the performance can be advertised by simple annualisation of yields if a
performance figure is available for at least 7 days, 15 days and 30 days provided it does not
reflect an unrealistic or misleading picture of the performance or future performance of the
scheme. Further, where a scheme has been in existence for less than six months, past
performance shall not be provided. In case the scheme has been in existence for more than
six months but less than one year, then simple annualized growth rate of the scheme for the
past 6 months from the last day of month-end preceding the date of advertisement shall be
provided.
• The Employees' Provident Fund Organization (EPFO) has held the interest rates on
provident fund deposits unchanged at 8.5% for FY21. The announcement follows a year
marked by significant withdrawals and smaller contributions due to the coronavirus
pandemic.
Regulatory Updates in India
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9
• According to media reports, Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority of India
(IRDAI) is in talks with Indian National Ship owners' Association (INSA) to develop a
protection and indemnity insurance club (P&I club) in India, a move that will support the
development of a marine insurance market in India. A P&I club is a mutual insurance
association that enables risk pooling among members and provides information and
representation for its members.
• According to media reports, IRDAI has issued norms for sending periodic notices to
policyholders to ensure continuity of relationship with policyholders and flow of
information in a standard manner. All insurers will have to notify relevant and key details
relating to health insurance coverage available to policyholders periodically.
• According to media reports, IRDAI has formed a working group committee to relook its
information and security guidelines amid the exponential increase in cyber attacks across
the globe.
• The Union Cabinet approved the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU)
between the Indian Ministry of Agriculture and the Ministry of Agriculture of Fiji. The MoU
between India and Fiji calls for collaboration in a variety of fields, including the promotion
of joint projects between the two countries' private sectors.
Regulatory Updates in India (contd..)
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• According to the Labor Department, U.S. non-farm payroll employment increased more
than expected by 379,000 jobs in Feb 2021 after climbing by an upwardly revised 166,000
jobs in Jan 2021. The unemployment rate fell 6.2% in Feb from 6.3% in Jan.
• According to the Institute for Supply Management, U.S. manufacturing Purchasing
Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 60.8 in Feb 2021 from 58.7 in Jan 2021.
• According to the Institute for Supply Management, U.S. services Purchasing Managers’
Index fell to 55.3 in Feb 2021 from 58.7 in Jan 2021. The decrease was partly due to a
slowdown in the pace of growth in new orders and business activity.
• According to the latest survey from Caixin, China’s manufacturing Purchasing Managers’
Index (PMI) fell to 50.9 in Feb 2021 from 51.5 in Jan 2021.
• According to Jibun Bank, Japan’s manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to
51.4 in Feb 2021, 22-month high, from 49.8 in Jan 2021.
• According to data from the Eurostat, eurozone’s retail sales volume fell 5.9% MoM in Jan
2021 as against 1.8% rise in Dec 2020. On a yearly basis, retail sales fell 6.4% in Jan as
against 0.9% rise in Dec.
• According to the Ministry of Communications, Japan’s unemployment rate came in at 2.9%
in Jan 2021 that was unchanged from the Dec 2020.
• According to data from the Eurostat, eurozone unemployment rate held steady at 8.1% in
Jan 2021 as against 7.4% in the same period last year.
10
Global News/Economy
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11
Global Indices
Indices
05-Mar-21
1-Week
Return
YTD
Return
Russell 3000 1,908.95 -1.95% -2.24%
Nasdaq 100 12,668.51 -1.87% -1.71%
FTSE 100 6,630.52 2.27% 2.63%
DAX Index 13,920.69 0.97% 1.47%
Nikkei Average 28,864.32 -0.35% 5.17%
Straits Times 3,013.85 2.20% 5.98%
Source: Refinitiv
Value as on Mar 5, 2021;
U.S.
• U.S. markets declined as U.S. Treasury
yields showed a notable rebound, after
trending lower over the past few
sessions. However, further losses were
restricted after U.S. nonfarm payroll
employment for Feb 2021 came better
than market expectations.
Europe
• European markets closed higher with investors taking positive cues from U.K.'s budget
announcement, earnings news and updates on coronavirus vaccination drive.
Asia
• Asian markets witnessed a mixed trend as the positive vibes generated from optimism
about the coronavirus vaccine rollout and the stimulus-driven global economic recovery
was neutralized by spike in U.S. Treasury yield in reaction to the latest comments from the
U.S. Federal Reserve Chief. The latest comments from the U.S. Federal Chief indicated that
the central bank expects some inflationary pressures in the time ahead.
Global Equity Markets
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12
• Yields on the 10-year U.S. Treasury rose
9 bps to close at 1.55%, from the
previous week’s close of 1.46%. Yield
rose to its highest level in a year.
• U.S. Treasury prices rose initially as
comments from two U.S. Federal
Reserve officials continued to downplay
runaway inflation concerns.
• However, the trend reversed following
the highly anticipated comments by the
U.S. Federal Reserve Chief. The latest
comments from the U.S. Federal
Reserve Chief indicated that the central
bank expects some inflationary
pressures in the time ahead. Market
sentiments were further dampened
after the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman
indicated no immediate move to
address the surge in U.S. Treasury yields
Global Debt (U.S.)
1.36
1.51
1.66
1-Mar 2-Mar 3-Mar 4-Mar 5-Mar
Yield in %
US 10-Year Treasury Yield Movement
Source: Refinitiv
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13
Performance of various commodities
Commodities
Last Closing* 1-Week Ago
Brent Crude($/Barrel)
70.21 66.81
Gold ($/Oz)
1,700.86 1,733.49
Gold (Rs/10 gm)
44,310 46,425
Silver ($/Oz)
25.19 26.62
Silver (Rs/Kg)
64,964 68,551
Source: Refinitiv *Value as on Mar 5, 2021
Gold
• Gold prices fell and touched to a near
nine-month low following rise in the U.S.
dollar and U.S. Treasury yields after U.S.
Federal Reserve Chairman indicated no
immediate move to address the surge in
bond yields.
Brent Crude
• Brent Crude prices rose in the wake of
reports that major oil producers have
agreed to keep their supply cuts intact
through next month. Oil prices drew
support from hopes that the coronavirus
vaccine rollout in the U.S. may improve
the demand outlook of the commodity.
Baltic Dry Index
• The index rose due to improved capesize
and panamax activities.
Commodities Market
9.00
10.00
11.00
12.00
5-Feb-21 19-Feb-21 5-Mar-21
Global Commodity Movement
Gold Spot ($/Oz) Silver Spot ($/Oz) Brent ($/bbl)
Global Commodity Prices
Rebased to 10
Source: Refinitiv
-5.37%
5.09%
-1.88%
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14
Movement of Rupee vs Other Currencies
Currency Last Closing* 1-Wk Ago
US Dollar
72.76 73.04
Pound Sterling
101.01 101.90
EURO
86.99 88.80
100 Yen
67.27 68.78
Source: Refinitiv Figures in INR , *Value as on Mar 5, 2021
Rupee
• The Indian rupee rose against the U.S.
dollar due to upbeat risk appetite in the
region. Some corporate greenback flows
along with robust inflows into domestic
equity market added to the upside.
Euro
• Euro plunged against the U.S. dollar as
market participant’s anticipated strong
U.S. growth relative to other regions.
Pound
• Pound fell against the strong U.S. dollar
after U.S. Federal Reserve Chief
indicated no immediate move to address
the surge in U.S. Treasury yields.
Yen
• Yen fell against the strong U.S. dollar
after U.S. Federal Reserve Chief
indicated no immediate move to address
the surge in U.S. Treasury yields.
Currencies Markets
9.70
10.00
10.30
5-Feb-21 19-Feb-21 5-Mar-21
USD GBP Euro JPY
Currency Prices ( in terms of INR)
Rebased to 10
Currency Movement
Source: Refinitiv
-0.39%
-2.04%
-2.20%
-0.87%
Mutual Fund Investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.
15
The Week that was…
1
st
Mar to 5
th
Mar
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16
The Week that was (Mar 1 – Mar 5)
Date Events Present Value Previous Value
Monday,
March 01, 2021
• India Manufacturing PMI (Feb) 57.5 57.7
• Germany Harmonized CPI (YoY) (Feb) PREL 1.60% 1.60%
• U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI (Feb) 60.8 58.7
• China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Feb) 50.9 51.5
• Japan Unemployment Rate (Jan) 2.90% 2.90%
Tuesday,
March 02, 2021
• India Balance of Trade (USD) (Feb) -12.88B -14.54B
• Germany Retail Sales (YoY) (Jan) -8.70% 2.80%
• Eurozone Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Feb) PREL 0.90% 0.90%
• Germany Unemployment Rate (Jan) 6% 6%
Wednesday,
March 03, 2021
• India Services PMI (Feb) 55.3 52.8
• U.S. ADP Employment Change (Feb) 117K 195K
• U.S. ISM Services PMI (Feb) 55.3 58.7
• Eurozone Markit PMI Composite (Feb) 48.8 48.1
• China Caixin Services PMI (Feb) 51.5 52
Thursday,
March 04, 2021
• Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) (Jan) -6.40% 0.90%
• Eurozone Unemployment Rate (Jan) 8.10% 8.10%
• U.S. Nonfarm Productivity (Q4) -4.20% -4.80%
• U.S. Factory Orders (MoM) (Jan) 2.60% 1.60%
Friday,
March 05, 2021
• Germany Factory Orders (MoM) (Jan) 1.40% -2.20%
• U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (Feb) 379 K 166 K
Mutual Fund Investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.
17
The Week Ahead
8
th
Mar, 2021 to 12
th
Mar, 2021
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18
Day Event
Monday,
March 8, 2021
• Japan Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q4)
• Japan Leading Economic Index (Jan) PREL
• Japan Overall Household Spending (YoY) (Jan)
• Eurozone Industrial Production (MoM) (Jan)
Tuesday,
March 9, 2021
• Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Q4)
• Germany Trade Balance (Jan)
• U.K. BRC Like-For-Like Retail Sales (YoY) (Feb)
Wednesday,
March 10, 2021
• China Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Feb)
• U.S. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Feb)
Thursday,
March 11, 2021
• European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision
• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (Mar 5)
Friday,
March 12, 2021
• Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) (Feb)
• U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Mar) PREL
• U.S. Producer Price Index (MoM) (Feb)
• U.K. Gross Domestic Product (MoM) (Jan)
• U.K. Industrial Production (MoM) (Jan)
The Week Ahead
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The information herein is meant only for general reading purposes and contains all factual and statistical information pertaining to Industry and
markets which have been obtained from independent third party sources and which are deemed to be reliable. The information provided cannot be
considered as guidelines, recommendations or as a professional guide for the readers. It may be noted that since Nippon Life India Asset
Management Limited (NAM India) (formerly Reliance Nippon Life Asset Management Limited) has not independently verified the accuracy or
authenticity of such information or data, or for that matter the reasonableness of the assumptions upon which such data and information has been
processed or arrive data; NAM India does not in any manner assures the accuracy or authenticity of such data and information. Some of the
statements & assertions contained in these materials may reflect NAM India’s views or opinions, which in turn may have been formed on the basis of
such data or information. The Sponsor(s), the Investment Manager, the Trustee or any of their respective directors, employees, affiliates or
representatives do not assume any responsibility for, or warrant the accuracy, completeness, adequacy and reliability of such data or information.
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